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Slide 1

Taking Decisions Based on Imperfect Information

  • Consistently underestimated the terrorist, WMD, and missile threat.
  • Must recognize we do not know everything.
  • Absolute proof cannot be precondition for action.
    • Live in world with little or no
      warning.
    • Little margin for error
    • Initiative is with terrorists, terrorist-states.
    • Catastrophic consequences of WMD attack.

Points Made

  • WMD proliferation pervasive.
  • Inevitable access to these capabilities.
  • Facts are not debatable. Can differ on many things, but not on facts.
  • Real situation worse than what facts show.
  • Repeatedly thought "X" was the case, only to discover we underestimated.

    Only surprise is that we are still surprised when this happens.

Slide 2

NATO Members Have Opportunity

  • After September 11, U.S. now asking itself the tough questions:
    • What did we know, and when?
    • What could we have done?
    • What can we do to stop further attacks?
  • NATO members have opportunity to ask same questions, before an attack in Europe.
  • What should NATO countries be doing today, with possibility that an attack could occur at any time?

Points Made

  • We are all on notice.
  • Attack will happen. Just question of when, where, and how.
  • Could happen tomorrow, or years from now.
  • If we know attack is going to happen, what can we start doing today to prevent it, or mitigate its effects?

Slide 3

 
  • We're On Notice
    • Do we maintain old approach to doing business that was designed for different security environment, or do we adapt?
    • Are we currently bringing all elements of national power to bear to solve this problem?
    • Our nation has been attacked. Will we adjust to new reality?
  • Must be preventative.
  • Need to go on offense.
  • Need to take the initiative away from the terrorists, and terror-states.

Slide 4

Next Steps

  • Need broad factual recognition of WMD threat.
  • Pool knowledge on terrorist/WMD threats. Work with Ministers to brief key officials in capitals:
    • Heads of State, Finance Ministries, Foreign Ministries, Intelligence Services, Health Ministries and First Responders, Parliaments, Others?
  • NATO might develop threat assessment, and launch campaign to raise awareness of terrorist/WMD threat.
  • These are the next steps that we, as Defense Ministers, should take.
  • We need to build awareness of the threat, and the urgent need for action.
  • This needs to happen both in capitals, and with the general public.
  • Once we have consensus on the facts, and on the urgency of problem, we need to turn all elements of our national power to bear on solving problem.