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JAMES APPATHURAI (NATO Spokesman): Just a few points and I have to take your questions. First, agenda and issues on the agenda and then a brief discussion of Afghanistan and wait for it in the next few days.
First, today, the day started with a NATO-Russia Council meeting. It had two... It's the regular scheduled ambassadorial level NATO-Russia Council meeting. It had two points in essence on the agenda. One was all the work that's going on to prepare the foreign ministers meeting on Friday next week. And in other words to agree the documents that will lay out the way forward for future cooperation between the 29 countries in the NATO-Russia Council. Somebody used the road map. And I think that's not a bad term. The joint review that the Secretary General proposed in his speech at Carnegie, joint review of 21st century threats and challenges is, of course, one of the major blocks of that work. We had to agree to launch the review. Morning... Formerly at the ministerial.
The second issue which I didn't listen to because I came downtown here was a briefing by the Russian Federation on recent military exercises. And surprisingly Zapad and Ladoga, the two exercises that have been in the media were the main topics. These, as I say, are being briefed now by the Russian Federation, by ambassador Rogozin. There will be a discussion. I cannot reflect the outcome of that discussion yet.
Right after that, a briefing by the OSCE chairman in office to the NAC. This is the Greek Foreign Minister Dimitris Droutsas of the new government. Sorry, it's on behalf of the minister of OSCE chairman in office to lay out the priorities of the OSCE and NATO-OSCE cooperation.
Next, a briefing, an interesting discussion which I haven't heard, which I have before me by the Assistant Secretary General for Defence Investment on improvised explosive devices. As you know I'm sure, improvised explosive devices are in many ways the most lethal threat that our forces face in Afghanistan. Over 70% of the deaths in ISAF so far this year were caused by improvised explosive devices.
And they pose a real challenge because they are flexible. They are easy to make with simple materials that are easily found in local communities like fertilizer. They are part of a range of tools that insurgents and terrorists can use for example combining improvised explosive devices with small arms fire targeting the teams that dispose of them, targeting other first responders. And of course, it's not just the person who plants the device; it's also the network that must be tackled, that funds; provides material and component; manufactures and transport these devices. And they are part of wider network of, as I said, insurgents, terrorists, criminals and drug traffickers.
The basic principle of the briefing was that it takes a network to defeat a network. That individual countries alone are not as effective in fighting IEDs or countering as they are if they work together and work through NATO. And a lot of work is being done to upgrade our doctrine; upgrade our training; upgrade our equipment; share information and intelligence. And that includes in a very tactical sense sharing forensic data from actual incidents to draw... to share the information about the source the material; the kind of improvised explosive device that was used; and try to draw the lessons from that and share them amongst the Allies.
Allied Command Transformation which is based in Norfolk, led by General Abrial is taking the lead on doctrine development and training. Allied Command Operations and SHAPE of course and ISAF in particular take the lead in the operational domain and our intelligence agencies are sharing intelligence as well.
Of course, the nations have the lead role. But we want to be systematic as an organisation to try to, as I say, share lessons learned. We want to help those nations who are not as advanced in countering these devices to raise their capacities and as I mentioned handling forensic data is very important.
So I think I mentioned the three main areas. Doctrine, standards and training is one; intelligence and information sharing as a second; and improving equipment. These are three areas where NATO can add value. And I think I have said everything, except there is one more area where we want to provide support and that's to Afghan security forces who, of course, not only need to learn who to deal with these problems no. But as we transition to Afghan need, they will take an ever greater responsibility. And, by the way, therefore, be more exposed to these threats. So we will work with them as well.
Next, the Secretary General's travel. He will leave today for Rome and arrive in Rome this afternoon, basically for a one-hour meeting with Prime Minister Berlusconi. The main topic, you will not be surprised, will be Afghanistan. He will then leave Rome for Berlin and meet tomorrow with the German President, the German Minister of Defence, Foreign Minister and the Chancellor; will meet the Chancellor at 15... Sorry, the meeting with the Chancellor should end at 16:10. And there will be a press conference, a joint press conference on the first floor of the Chancellery with Chancellor Merkel.
He will also give a speech at a seminar organised by the German Atlantic Treaty Association. Whether there are 500 people, I don't know what exactly the arrangements are.
He will then continue from Germany to two countries. First, he will to Podgorica meet with the Speaker of the Parliament. This is on Friday. He will meet with the President, with the Prime Minister; will meet with the press at around 11:15 with the Montenegrin Prime Minister and then depart for Sarajevo where he will meet with the Presidency of Bosnia-Herzegovina. He will have a joint press conference with... I think the President of the Presidency. I don't know exactly how you put that, but the Chair of the Presidency, Mr.Silajdžić; meet with the parliaments and that will be it. To go through the meetings, yes, Rome... the priority will be Afghanistan.
I suspect that in Germany the main topic of discussion will also be Afghanistan and the way forward. I'll come back to that in a moment. They may well also discuss I think the Strategic Concept.
Madeleine Albright and Jeroen van der Veer who are the chair and co-chair of the 12 member team that is now preparing an initial report for the Secretary General. They were in the NATO building yesterday. They met with the Secretary General. They met with NAC to discuss the work, ongoing work that they are doing. They will submit their report to the Secretary General in... I think it's in April. And that will then form the basis for negotiations amongst nations in the run-up to the November summit in Portugal.
So as they get closer to delivering their report, the Strategic Concept does come up in almost every... in almost every discussion. Next week, we have the ministerial meeting. What I wanted to say was first the Secretary General will give a press conference on Wednesday, so the day before the ministerial starts at 14:30 at NATO headquarters.
I think you can expect that Afghanistan will take up a significant portion of his opening remarks if I can put it that way. And then we will go into the meeting. There will be a working lunch on Thursday. That's how the meeting will start. The... on the third. That's just Allies only. Then you have the NATO-Ukraine Commission; NATO-Georgia Commission that will bring that day to an end, except that I do expect the usual transatlantic dinner hosted by the Belgium authorities where again I expect Afghanistan to be the main topic of discussion amongst all the NATO and EU foreign ministers there.
Then, the next morning, the day begins at 8:00 AM with a NAC meeting include... well with non-NATO ISAF contributors in room 16. It starts at 8:00. And then the NAC meeting will be in room 1; so just NATO-Allies alone at 11:00 o'clock. Press conference by the Secretary General will be in there, somewhere. I haven't exactly figured out where. And then we will have an NRC meeting at around 1:45 with Foreign Minister Lavrov, followed by press conference by the Secretary-General who will be in his role role as the chairman of the NATO-Russia Council. Carmen tells me not to forget the press conference on Thursday. There will be a press conference on Thursday. But we will send out a proper media advisor.
Final point, Afghanistan, and then I will stop, the... At a certain stage in the coming days, I think it is safe to assume... and I don't know what exactly that day will be, but at a certain stage in the coming days, President Obama will announce his decision on the way forward on Afghanistan. The Secretary General will also make a public statement in that regard. There will be a discussion amongst the ISAF to contributing nations at the Foreign Ministers' Meeting. And then there will be a Force Generation Conference on the 7th of December at SHAPE.
I'd like to put the Force Generation Conference into context. Because there has been some misunderstanding in the media. We've seen reports that it will be a summit on the 7th of December at SHAPE. The Chiefs of Defence are going to come. No, that isn't the case. This is a technical level meeting. It is the heart of the annual global force generation. That means the annual conference that addresses all NATO missions, where nations can make offers against outstanding requirements for any and all NATO missions.
This one will concentrate... this part of the Force Generation Conference will concentrate, of course, on Afghanistan. Nations are free to send personnel. It's always military personnel at whatever level to pledge against requirements. They can also simply ask his staff that is represented at SHAPE to make those commitments. All this to say, we should keep this in proportion. It will not be a summit. It will be a technical level meeting. But that will take into account hopefully... well will take into account President Obama's announcement, will take into account the political discussion among foreign ministers.
I say it again the ministerial will not be at Force Generation Conference. It is not defence ministers; it is not chiefs of defence; it is foreign ministers to have a political discussion of the way forward on Afghanistan. And then comes the Force Generation Conference.
I think it's also important to remember that the Germans and they are not alone... that the Germans have publicly said that any possible increases in their contribution would only be discussed after a January conference... the January conference that has been discussed at length, which should discuss the way forward on Afghanistan at the highest level and would also include a new compact or contract between the international community and Afghanistan.
All this to say, the United States will make its announcement. The Secretary General will make his statement. That will include, I'm quite confident, a strong statement that the other allies must also demonstrate... or must also respond... No, let me put this properly. That it is important... that's right... for the political balance in this mission that there is a commensurate contribution also from the other Allies to the strengthened ISAF mission. He has been... and is working actively with Allies to see how to stimulate further contribution to the mission, not only from the United States, but from the other allies as well. OK, I think that's all I wanted to say. And I'm happy to take your... commensurate... Commensurate, sorry, that's not a fair word to use in a multilateral... multinational environment. Should we start here, in the back? Oh no, OK.
Q: James, just on the information sharing on IEDs, you make it sound like Allies are currently not sharing forensic information on IED events.
APPATHURAI: No, they do. But they don't do it... from what I understand, it's not done in a systematic way through a structure, to the extent that it could be. In essence, like many things in ISAF, nations tend to deal in first and foremost national channels when it comes to issues that occur in their area of operations. And that is a natural by-product of the way in which the operation is carried out.
One of the advantages of NATO is precisely that... we bypass national "still pipes" to the extent possible to raise the level across the board. And in this area as IEDs become an ever bigger problem, the importance of sharing best practices; equipment and this kind of intelligence data becomes ever more important. And this year, more than ever, because the problem has grown. So it does happen but it can happen much more and in a more systematic way. And this is why amongst other commands, ACT is trying to help out.
Q: James, on the NRC, can you just give us a little more details in what, for example, it might be short-term cooperation and long-term cooperation? And given reports of incidents at NATO HQs has the atmosphere between NATO and the Russian diplomats improved in recent weeks? There's been reports about spying and suspicions going on.
APPATHURAI: Hum, (LAUGHTER) I will restrain myself from making a whole host of jokes that I could make. OK, so in terms of cooperation, there is... Ah yes, that's Carmen again. No, no, she's leading me up... (LAUGHTER) No, in terms of short-term and long-term cooperation, I think it's difficult to separate the two very honestly. But there is a relatively short...but I think a substantial list of areas where cooperation could be developed and around which consensus in the NRC seems to be coalescing, for example on Afghanistan where we can clearly do more to our mutual interest in countering terrorism, in improving interoperability, in simple political consultation in a more regular and substantive way.
And, yes, I mean all the areas of military to military cooperation. For example, the Cooperative Air Space Initiative which is a project in which we share for certain areas and air space picture has now moved forward to a more operational phase. And that's a good thing. So I do think, finding areas in which there's a mutual benefit for cooperation is not difficult.
I wouldn't break them into two things. But A) I don't think it's that difficult... More to the point, I don't think the Allies are finding it that difficult. And that... sorry the NRC members.
Q: ... without... we might expect if there's something tangible that we can see in the short term.
APPATHURAI: Well, let's wait and see how these negotiations go. I think next week we'll have a much clearer answer on that.
Q: Stephanie Bolzen, Die Welt. I think it's pure coincidence that the Secretary General is tomorrow in Berlin while at the same time where the German Bundestag starts...
APPATHURAI: ... debating.
Q: ... the healings on the mandate again. So can you just give us an idea what Mr. Rasmussen might tell Angela Merkel what he would like to see?
APPATHURAI: Well, I don't think it's wise for a spokesman to reveal what's in the press lines. But yes, first, it is... with the speech notes... first it is a coincidence. No one could have foreseen that. But the fact that the German government has extended the mandate is very welcomed. Not a surprise, because Germany's commitment to this mission has been unwavering since the beginning. But it is always welcome. Germany makes a very important.... The Secretary General will want to discuss with not only Chancellor Merkel, but Foreign Minister Westerwelle and Minister Guttenberg the way forward. And we all understand the context in which these discussions are taking place.
The Secretary General would like to see more, not least for the training mission from all of the Allies. And that is the message he carries to all of the Allies. But he also, of course, understands the political calendar within Germany. Minister Guttenberg has not been alone; but has been very clear in saying that the January conference is an important milestone for Germany before it would consider doing anything above the current limits. He understands that and respects it. But I think the way forward on Afghanistan is going to be the first subject of discussion. In Germany, of course, Russia often comes up and then they wish NATO-Russia relations as well.
Q: James, usually, every... I think every year... by the end of the year there is a ministerial with the Mediterranean Dialogue. So why this year, there is no one?
JAMES APPATHURAI: That's a good question. I don't know the answer. It isn't always the case that there is a ministerial at the end of the year. I don't even know if it was... I have to check. I don't know why it's not particularly happening this year. But it doesn't happen every year, so....
Q: Yes, President Obama will, at the start of next week, announce a number for troops in Afghanistan. When the Sec Gen calls for a "commensurate European contribution", does he intend to be able to announce the rough side of that "commensurate contribution"; or will it be essentially another exhortation to the other allies to follow the move that the Americans have made?
APPATHURAI: It's a good question because I think the answer is important. Nobody should expect that the day after President Obama makes his announcement that there will be a total troop figure added up and put on the table from the other Allies. That is not the way it will work. A number of Allies have already, in the past few weeks, sorry a number of ISAF countries have already in the past few weeks indicated increases, some quite substantial.
Let me mention, for example, the Slovaks who are doubling their contingent; the Georgians who are going from three to one thousand, around a thousand. The United Kingdom that has indicated 500 if certain conditions are met. And those conditions seem not... well it seemed possible to be met. The South Korean who now have a rec team on the ground before setting up a provincial reconstruction team that should have as they have said, several hundred in it . So this is already what's in the public domain.
There are... as you will not be surprised to hear, active discussions more confidentially what more can be provided. Both for the ongoing combat and reconstruction operations but also for training. But it will not all be announced the day after.
There will be a political discussion, as I mentioned, by ministers; by foreign ministers. There will be a Force Generation Conference. And then there will be the conference in January which is an important milestone for some nations. So there should patience on the part of... everyone's part to see how... or sorry patience on everyone's part as the European Allies and other partners determine in response to what President Obama announced what more they can do.
Q: On the same point, though, you're using the word "commensurate". If Obama were to decide to increase the troop numbers by let's say 20 000, be around 30% of the total number that they've got there at the moment, would "commensurate" for the other nations be an equivalence of percentage increase in that troop, even if it takes time to come to that. Is that what "commensurate" will mean? Or does it mean less than that?
APPATHURAI: No, I think nobody should expect that Allies... the other Allies can measure up to what the United States can do. The United States has, of course, military capability that surpasses substantially what the other Allies can muster. That is simply a fact.
I think it's also worth noting that the Allies... sorry the non-US Allies have in the past 20 months doubled, I say again, doubled what they have on the ground from about 18 000 to 36 000 forces. And that sometimes goes unnoticed when people talk about the Europeans sort of step up to the plate. They're already at the plate. And they have done a heck of lot to increase their contribution, precisely when the going has gotten tougher. And I think that sometimes goes unnoticed.
So they will and they are looking at what more they can do. I don't think we should over-interpret the word "commensurate" more... and what is... is what we're looking for.
Q: Yes, about the visit today of Rasmussen in Italy, will he be surprised, do you think, if he will ask to Mr. Berlusconi to maintain the 400 soldiers that Italy has sent for the (inaudible)...
APPATHURAI: I don't... I don't honestly don't know exactly what he will ask. So I don't want to prejudge that discussion. He will be very specific in what he discusses with the prime minister. I know this is having set with him through other meetings that he has with other heads of State and government. But I don't know... I very honestly don't know exactly what he's going to ask. It will be, I'm quite sure, focussed on Afghanistan and probably on NATO-Russia as well.
Q: It's quick one. You're talking about some nations waiting for the January conference... Could you...? I know that you don't like to name nations, but characterize that is it a small minority, considerable one...
APPATHURAI: I am aware of a small number. Let me put it that way. A small number of countries, but not the least... not the smallest of them, Germany being the most obvious, who are looking to that conference. Because let me point out what, because they want to see any further contribution in the context of the overall political environment in which they will be deploying their forces. And that is thoroughly understandable. The government, the new government in Afghanistan has made commitments. President Karzai made commitments in his speech, inauguration speech.
And I understand there's already work underway to address corruption in the Afghan government. But there are real questions in our publics about the way forward, politically and not just military. Those are very legitimate questions which, by the way, our governments have just as much as our publics have. And so, many countries do want to look at what more they can do. But they want to look at it with the full picture that is political and not just military. Some countries, I think, will also be in a position to offer more now or soon. But will also pay great attention to what happens in January.
Q: The General Secretary comes out as the Allies... It is his desire to bring in more countries into ISAF? I heard about Mongolia, for example, contributing. It's first question. The second is. it only about troop numbers or is it general contribution concerning civilian trainers develop political structure building, whatever because he said that we don't want to send more troops... some troops is trainers. But contribute to the civilian side. Does it come an equilibrium or...?
APPATHURAI: Yes.
Q: Maybe a Serb... What is the January Conference? It is a summit meeting. Where it is going to be held? Is it known?
APPATHURAI: Same question. The answer the first question. More countries are better. More countries is good. No sorry, don't write that because I look stupid. The bigger the tent for this mission, the greater the illustration that this is a true international effort and the more capability we have on the ground. So yes, more contribution are welcome by definition.
Secondly, there you're asking a very important point. The answer I think is this. Yes, we do need as an international community to step up the civilian effort. And the EU Action Plan, for example; the Japanese contribution of five billion $ for reconstruction and development; the German announcement that it's going to step up by I think 50 million its development system. All of these are very, very welcome.
But there cannot be reconstruction and development in any sustainable way without security. And we have to have a fair sharing of the burden also on the security front which is the most dangerous. So it cannot be, to be it more bluntly, simply for the United States alone to do the fighting or the United States and United Kingdom alone to do the fighting.
We also need to invest in training so that we can take forward transition. And we believe that we can start handing over parts of Afghanistan to Afghan security forces lead next year. But this comes to the crux of what the Secretary General says. We have to do more now to be able to do less later. It requires an investment now if we're going to be able to get to this stage where we can do less later, not that we can start doing less now. We're not at that stage yet. But we can foresee, we can see the stage where that will happen. But it requires investment.
Now, the January conference, the bottom-line is nothing has been agreed. Nothing is, I think, 100% clear. But my expectation is that it will be certainly at the political level, possibly at the summit level. Prime Minister Brown has offered, I believe, to host it in London. But I don't know where it will be because also saw that President Karzai has offered to host something in Kabul. So how they're going to do this? I don't exactly know.
Q: I didn't... You didn't mention Pakistan. Could we expect that the situation inside Pakistan will be discussed in the next ministerial meeting? And do you have...? Are the non-ISAF... I mean non-NATO countries will be also on Friday meeting on a ministerial level?
APPATHURAI: Yes. It will be an ISAF foreign ministers meeting. I don't know what the... at the foreign ministers' level. I don't know exactly who's coming and who's not coming. But they're invited at foreign ministers' level. And I expect that they in large majority attend.
Hum, in terms of Pakistan, let's say two things. ISAF's mandate ends at the border. We know that. I said it more than once I think. The point being we're going very much on ISAF at this meeting, its operations and what it does and how it does it... and the numbers of soldiers that will do it.
But of course, the regional context is very relevant. I would not be surprised if the regional context were to be part of President Obama's remarks. And NATO foreign ministers may well also address as part of their discussions of strategy and not just numbers... the regional context first and foremost that means Pakistan. And that is one of the four, five priorities that NATO has identified at the political level reaching out and having a better political relationship with Pakistan. Do I expect a discussion at length of the internal situation in Pakistan, no, very frankly no? My friends, thank you.