Deterrence and defence

 

 

• Key threats to Allied security
• NATO’s purpose: safeguarding the freedom and security of its members
• Resilience: the first line of deterrence and defence
• Bolstering NATO's deterrence and defence since 2014
• Strengthening deterrence and defence in specific areas
• Maintaining the Alliance's military and technological edge
• Investing in defence

 

Key threats to Allied security

NATO faces the most complex security environment since the end of the Cold War. Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine has shattered peace in Europe and has gravely undermined global security, and is causing enormous human suffering and destruction. Terrorism continues to represent a global security challenge and a threat to stability. At the same time, China’s stated ambitions and coercive policies challenge the Alliance's interests, security and values. The deepening strategic partnership between Russia and China, and their mutually reinforcing attempts to undercut and reshape the rules-based international order, are a cause for profound concern. Growing global uncertainty, more sophisticated and disruptive cyber and hybrid threats, the increasing prominence of nuclear weapons in potential adversaries’ strategies, and exponential technological change are all having a substantial impact on the Alliance.

Russia is the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security. It seeks to fundamentally reconfigure the Euro-Atlantic security architecture. It is rebuilding and expanding its military capabilities, and continues its airspace violations and provocative activities. It is waging a campaign of aggressive hybrid actions against Allies, including sabotage, acts of violence, provocations at Allied borders, instrumentalisation of irregular migration, malicious cyber activities, electronic interference, disinformation campaigns and malign political influence, as well as economic coercion. Its irresponsible nuclear rhetoric and coercive nuclear signalling, including its announced stationing of nuclear weapons in Belarus, demonstrate a posture of strategic intimidation. The Alliance is determined to constrain and contest Russia’s aggressive actions, and to counter its ability to conduct destabilising activities towards NATO and Allies.  

Terrorism, in all its forms and manifestations, is the most direct asymmetric threat to the security of NATO citizens and to international peace and prosperity. Conflict, fragility and instability in Africa and the Middle East directly affect the security of the Alliance and its partners. NATO’s southern neighbourhood, particularly the Middle East, North Africa and Sahel regions, faces interconnected security, demographic, economic and political challenges. These are aggravated by the impact of climate change, fragile institutions, health emergencies and food insecurity. NATO will continue to counter, deter, defend and respond to threats and challenges posed by terrorists and terrorist organisations based on a combination of prevention, protection and denial measures with determination, resolve and in solidarity.

 

NATO’s purpose: safeguarding the freedom and security of its members

NATO's essential and enduring purpose is to safeguard the freedom and security of all its members by political and military means. Collective defence is at the heart of the Alliance, as set out in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. NATO's greatest responsibility is to protect and defend Allied territory and populations against attack in a world where peace and security cannot be taken for granted.

Deterrence is a core element of NATO's overall strategy: preventing conflict and war, protecting Allies, maintaining freedom of decision and action, and upholding the principles and values it stands for – individual liberty, democracy, human rights and the rule of law. Free societies and the rules-based international order need to be backed by credible transatlantic defence. NATO’s collective strength deters aggression from potential adversaries.

At the 2022 Madrid Summit, NATO set a new baseline for its deterrence and defence posture in line with its 360-degree approach, across the land, air, maritime, cyber and space domains, and against all threats and challenges. 

NATO Leaders built upon this new baseline at the 2023 Vilnius Summit and 2024 Washington Summit, agreeing significant measures to enhance NATO’s deterrence and defence in all domains. In Vilnius, Allies approved a new generation of regional defence plans to strengthen forward defences and increase the Alliance’s ability to rapidly reinforce any Ally that may come under threat. In Washington, they pledged to expand their defence industrial capacity to deliver the critical capabilities needed for collective defence.

NATO's deterrence and defence posture is based on an appropriate mix of nuclear, conventional and missile defence capabilities, complemented by space and cyber capabilities. NATO maintains the freedom of action and flexibility to respond to the full spectrum of challenges with an appropriate and tailored approach.

 

Resilience: the first line of deterrence and defence

Enhancing national and collective resilience is an integral part of NATO's deterrence and defence posture. This means strengthening the capacity of societies to prepare for, respond to, recover from and adapt to the full range of threats and hazards.

Russia’s war against Ukraine, growing geopolitical competition and the many other security challenges faced by the Alliance today underscore the importance of NATO’s “all hazards” and “whole of society” approach to resilience. This means preparing, empowering and investing in the ability of societies to defend themselves against a wide range of threats – from cyber attacks to chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear incidents; terrorism; pandemics; natural disasters; and growing strategic threats, including against democratic systems, critical infrastructure, and supply chains. Allies boost their resilience by addressing vulnerabilities that can otherwise be used as leverage or be targeted by adversaries.
Resilience is therefore an important aspect of deterrence by denial: persuading an adversary not to attack by convincing it that an attack will not achieve its intended objectives.

Resilience also requires close civil-military cooperation, as it impacts NATO's ability to conduct its missions and maintain the mobility of troops and equipment. Ensuring that national and military forces under NATO command are adequately supported with civilian resources and infrastructure is a core feature of NATO's resilience efforts. Since 2014, NATO has been providing guidelines to assist national authorities in improving their resilience across seven baseline requirements by reducing potential vulnerabilities. These requirements are updated regularly to reflect the evolving nature of the challenges faced by the Alliance.

In line with the NATO 2030 agenda and the 2021 Strengthened Resilience Commitment, the 2022 Strategic Concept stresses the importance of adopting a more integrated and better coordinated approach to resilience within the Alliance, including against Russian coercion, and in supporting NATO partners to counter malign interference and aggression. Partnerships with non-NATO countries and other organisations are essential to reinforcing Allies' national and collective resilience, and to supporting the Alliance's planning and preparedness through the sharing of information and best practices.

 

Bolstering NATO's deterrence and defence since 2014

Throughout its history, NATO has continuously adapted its deterrence and defence to meet the challenges of the evolving security environment. Over the past decade in particular – since Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and its increasingly threatening posture towards the Alliance – NATO has overhauled its plans and structures to ensure that Allies are ready to respond to any threat from any direction.

2014 – Readiness Action Plan

The Readiness Action Plan (RAP), launched at the 2014 Wales Summit, was a major driver for change in the Alliance's deterrence and defence posture. The RAP included assurance measures for NATO Allies in Central and Eastern Europe to reassure their populations, deter potential aggression and reinforce their defence. It also included adaptation measures – longer-term changes to NATO’s forces and command structure – which launched the most significant reinforcement of NATO's collective defence since the end of the Cold War.

2016 – Strengthened deterrence and defence posture, including enhanced Forward Presence

Building on the RAP, NATO Heads of State and Government approved a strengthened deterrence and defence posture at the 2016 Warsaw Summit. It provided the Alliance with a broad range of options to be able to respond to any threats from wherever they arise to protect NATO territory, populations, airspace and sea lines of communication. Allies agreed to establish an enhanced Forward Presence in the eastern part of the Alliance, and in 2017 four NATO multinational battlegroups were deployed in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. Additional measures were taken to reinforce security in the south-east of the Alliance, with a tailored Forward Presence in the Black Sea region. Furthermore, a number of measures have been undertaken to adapt the Alliance to the challenges emanating from the South, including capacity-building, dedicated exercises and advance planning, as well as setting up the Regional Hub for the South in Naples, Italy, which contributes to NATO's situational awareness.

2018 – NATO Readiness Initiative

At the 2018 Brussels Summit, NATO Leaders reiterated their resolve to bolster the Alliance's readiness, responsiveness and reinforcement to respond to threats in a 360-degree approach. A NATO Readiness Initiative was launched to enhance the Alliance's rapid-response capability, either for reinforcement of Allies in support of deterrence or collective defence, including for high-intensity warfighting, or for rapid military crisis response, if required. It consisted of providing 30 heavy or medium manoeuvre battalions, 30 kinetic air squadrons and 30 major naval combatants at 30 days' readiness or less.

2020 – Concept for the Deterrence and Defence of the Euro-Atlantic Area (DDA)

In 2020, Allies approved the Concept for the Deterrence and Defence of the Euro-Atlantic Area (DDA). The DDA Concept provides a single, coherent framework for NATO Allies to contest, deter and defend against the Alliance’s main threats in a multi-domain environment. It also strengthens the Alliance’s preparedness to address challenges by enhancing NATO’s advance planning for potential crisis and conflict scenarios. Under the DDA Concept’s framework, NATO has developed strategic, domain-specific and regional military plans to improve the Alliance’s ability to respond to any contingencies. These plans are fully coherent with the planning of Allied forces and the new NATO Force Model, and they include posture management, capability development (including training and exercises), and command and control.

2021 – NATO 2030 agenda and NATO Warfighting Capstone Concept

At the 2021 Brussels Summit, Allies agreed the NATO 2030 agenda to strengthen the Alliance further and guide its adaptation for the future. This agenda includes deterrence and defence as a core element of the transatlantic bond between Europe and North America, which is at the heart of the Alliance. Allied Leaders welcomed the significant progress made to strengthen NATO’s deterrence and defence posture since 2014, including increased defence spending, modern capabilities, enhanced political and military responsiveness, and higher readiness.

They also welcomed the ongoing implementation of the DDA Concept and approved the NATO Warfighting Capstone Concept, which provides a long-term vision for maintaining and developing NATO’s decisive military edge, ensuring that the Alliance continuously develops its military and technological advantage as the character of conflict evolves.

2022 – Response to Russia’s war against Ukraine

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, NATO Leaders met in Brussels on 24 March 2022 to address the consequences of Russia’s actions and to take measures to further strengthen NATO’s deterrence and defence. They decided to deploy four multinational battlegroups in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, in addition to those already present in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, effectively doubling the number of battlegroups on NATO’s eastern flank from four to eight. They also decided to step up cyber defences and scale up exercises focused on collective defence and interoperability. 

At the Madrid Summit in June 2022, NATO Leaders made decisions to significantly strengthen the Alliance’s deterrence and defence posture. To that end, Allies agreed to adjust the balance between in-place forces and reinforcement. They agreed that the forward deployed battlegroups on the Alliance’s eastern flank should be able to be scaled up to brigade-size units, where and when required. These in-place forces are underpinned by credible, rapidly available reinforcements, prepositioned equipment, and enhanced command and control. Allies also agreed a new NATO Force Model, which strengthens and modernises the NATO Force Structure, supports the Alliance’s core tasks and resources its new generation of military plans. Allies agreed to ensure a substantial and persistent presence on land, at sea and in the air, including through stronger integrated air and missile defence.

2023 – New generation of regional defence plans and Defence Production Action Plan

At the 2023 Vilnius Summit, NATO Leaders agreed to modernise NATO for a new era of collective defence, approving the most comprehensive and detailed defence plans since the Cold War. This new generation of regional defence plans is significantly improving the coherence of NATO’s collective defence planning with Allies’ national planning of their forces, posture, capabilities, and command and control. These plans direct how NATO will deter and defend against any aggressor from any direction, explaining how, in the event of a crisis, Allied forces would defend forward and defeat complex threats across NATO territory. They also set out specifically what will be expected of Allies in a crisis. Driven by the increasingly complex threat environment, this is a larger, more demanding, ask of Allies than NATO has made since the end of the Cold War. The plans ensure that Allies can provide the right forces at the right time and in the right places.

In Vilnius, Allies also agreed a new Defence Production Action Plan to bolster engagement with the defence industry, accelerating joint procurement, boosting production capacity and enhancing Allies’ interoperability.

2024 – NATO Force Model and NATO Industrial Capacity Expansion Pledge

At the 2024 Washington Summit, Allies welcomed the progress made since the 2022 Madrid and 2023 Vilnius Summits on reinforcing and modernising NATO for a new era of collective defence.

In order to ensure the effectiveness of the defence plans agreed in Vilnius, Allies are implementing the NATO Force Model agreed in Madrid, which delivers a larger pool of dedicated combat-capable forces, harnessing regional expertise and geographic proximity to improve military responsiveness. As part of these efforts, they also established a new multinational and multi-domain Allied Reaction Force in July 2024, which provides more options to respond swiftly to threats and crises in all directions. The NATO Force Model and the Allied Reaction Force have replaced the NATO Response Force as the framework to organise, manage, activate and command Allied national forces, providing a larger pool of available forces and improving NATO’s ability to respond at very short notice.

In Washington, Allied Leaders also agreed the NATO Industrial Capacity Expansion Pledge to increase their cooperation with the defence industry and urgently deliver the most critical capabilities, including ammunition and air defence systems. This Pledge builds off the Defence Production Action Plan, which Allies agreed in 2023.

NATO Leaders also agreed at the Washington Summit to strengthen NATO’s command and control, and welcomed ongoing efforts by Allies to increase their presence on NATO’s eastern flank. In addition, Allied Leaders are committed to improving NATO’s ability to reinforce and sustain Allied forces across Alliance territory, including through greater logistics coordination and the prepositioning of ammunition and equipment.

 

Strengthening deterrence and defence in specific areas

In addition to the measures listed above, over the past decade NATO has strengthened its deterrence and defence in the following specific areas.

Integrated Air and Missile Defence

NATO Leaders have agreed to improve the readiness, preparedness and interoperability of NATO’s Integrated Air and Missile Defence (IAMD) through activities across all domains and along the spectrum of conflict. The Alliance is bolstering the integration and coherence of its IAMD through regular training, and the rotational presence of modern air defence systems and capabilities, with an initial focus on the eastern flank. These efforts will support NATO’s readiness, including its ability to deter aggression and manage escalation risks in a crisis that has a nuclear dimension.

Nuclear deterrence and arms control

NATO continues to address the security implications of Russia's ongoing modernisation of its nuclear forces, including its large stockpile of theatre-range weapons, and expansion of its novel and disruptive dual-capable delivery systems, which pose a significant risk to Alliance security. Russia’s violations and selective implementation of its arms control obligations and commitments have contributed to the deterioration of the broader security landscape. The Alliance is responding by strengthening its advanced conventional capabilities, investing in new platforms – including fifth-generation fighter aircraft – and adapting its exercises, intelligence, and air and missile defence posture. It is doing so while taking all necessary steps to ensure that its nuclear deterrence policy and forces remain credible, effective, safe and secure. At the same time, NATO remains strongly committed to effective arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation, and continues to call for all actors, including Russia and China, to engage constructively.

Exercises

Exercises remain an integral part of NATO's deterrence and defence posture, since military training is an essential requirement to maintain the Alliance's readiness levels and improve interoperability. NATO training and exercises simulate both conventional and nuclear dimensions of a crisis or conflict, facilitating greater coherence between conventional and nuclear components of NATO’s deterrence and defence posture across all domains and the entire spectrum of conflict. Exercises also play an important role in deterrence by communicating NATO’s capability, readiness and resolve to potential adversaries.

Cyberspace

NATO has recognised cyberspace as a domain of operations in which it must defend itself as effectively as it does in the air, on land, at sea and in space. The creation of a Cyberspace Operations Centre in Belgium in 2018 and the formation of counter-hybrid support teams to assist Allies in need also bolster the Alliance's deterrence efforts. At the 2021 Brussels Summit, Allies endorsed a new Comprehensive Cyber Defence Policy, which supports NATO’s core tasks and overall deterrence and defence posture to enhance the Alliance’s resilience in cyberspace. At the 2024 Washington Summit, Allies agreed to establish the NATO Integrated Cyber Defence Centre to enhance network protection, situational awareness and the implementation of cyberspace as an operational domain.

Space

At the December 2019 Leaders' Meeting in London, NATO declared space as a fifth operational domain (alongside air, land, sea and cyberspace). The information gathered and delivered through satellites is critical for NATO activities, operations and missions, including collective defence, crisis response and counter-terrorism. The NATO Space Centre established in 2020 in Germany serves as a focal point for sharing information, coordinating Allies' efforts and supporting NATO's operations and missions. At the 2021 Brussels Summit, NATO recognised that attacks to, from or within space could present a clear challenge to the security of the Alliance and could lead to the invocation of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. In 2023, NATO announced plans to establish the Alliance Persistent Surveillance from Space (APSS) initiative to enhance space-based surveillance and intelligence for the Alliance, which will improve situational awareness and decision-making.

Cooperation with the European Union

NATO's adaptation efforts continue in all domains and in areas that cover a whole-of-society approach to defence and security, such as civil preparedness and countering hybrid threats. The Alliance strengthens these activities through increased cooperation with the European Union (EU), which includes complementary and interoperable capability development to avoid duplication and contribute to transatlantic burden-sharing.

 

Maintaining the Alliance's military and technological edge

While the Alliance needs to be able to preserve peace today, it also needs to prepare for the increasingly unpredictable security environment of the future. To this end, at the 2021 Brussels Summit, Allied Leaders agreed to the full implementation of the NATO Warfighting Capstone Concept, which supports having a more proactive and anticipatory approach to military adaptation. Keeping its technological edge has always been an essential enabler of NATO's ability to deter and defend against potential adversaries. Innovations in emerging and disruptive technologies such as artificial intelligence, autonomous weapons systems, big data and biotech are changing warfare.

To help preserve its technological edge, NATO has agreed an implementation strategy for emerging and disruptive technologies. It also established a Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA) and, at the 2022 Madrid Summit, launched a multinational Innovation Fund, bringing together governments, the private sector and academia to bolster NATO's technological edge. The Alliance will play an important role as a forum for cooperation on various security-related aspects of these emerging technologies.

 

Investing in defence

The Defence Investment Pledge, adopted by NATO Leaders at the 2014 Wales Summit, called for all Allies to stop cuts to defence budgets and move towards the NATO-agreed guideline of spending at least 2% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on defence within a decade. Allies also agreed, in that same timeframe, to move towards spending at least 20% of annual defence expenditure on new major equipment and related research and development. Since then, Allies have all increased their defence spending, further developed their forces and capabilities, and have contributed to Allied operations, missions and activities. 

At the 2023 Vilnius Summit, NATO Leaders agreed a renewed Defence Investment Pledge, making an enduring commitment to investing at least 2% of GDP annually in defence. They also affirmed that in many cases, expenditure beyond 2% of GDP will be needed in order to remedy existing shortfalls and meet the requirements across all domains arising from a more contested security order. At the same time, NATO Leaders committed to investing at least 20% of their defence budgets on major equipment, including defence-related research and development. Allies also committed to contributing the necessary forces, capabilities and resources to the full range of NATO operations, missions and activities.

In 2024, 23 Allies are expected to meet or exceed the target of investing at least 2% of GDP in defence, compared to only three Allies in 2014. Over the past decade, European Allies and Canada have steadily increased their collective investment in defence – from 1.43% of their combined GDP in 2014, to 2.02% in 2024, when they are investing a combined total of more than USD 430 billion in defence.