Keynote address

Merci beaucoup Monsieur le Président.
Merci l'Association du Traité de l'Atlantique, l'Office franco-allemand pour la jeunesse et l'École Nationale d'Administration.

Comme vous voyez, je commence dans la langue de Voltaire, parce qu'après tout l'OTAN est une organisation bilingue (français-anglais).

Deuxième raison, mon épouse enseigne. Elle est professeur de français. Alors, le message de sa part était « pas trop long et pas trop vague ». 

C'est un grand plaisir d'être ici chers amis. Il s'agit comme vous le savez sans doute du quatrième forum de la jeunesse depuis le Sommet d'Istanbul. Et les participants représentent, j'ai entendu, près de 60 pays dont l'Afghanistan. Un nouveau record.

L'OTAN en 2020? Peut-être pas la boule de cristal, mais le site web de l'OTAN qui vient d'être réorganisé. On peut y consulter les discours entre 1999... je répète 1999 et 2019.

J'ai bien sûr cliqué sur 2019, espérant y trouver un discours qui m'aurait épargné pas mal de travail. Hélas, il n'y en avait pas. Et Michael J. Fox n'est pas non plus revenu du futur pour m'en proposer un. Donc, même quand il s'agit de l'avenir, nous n'échappons pas à la réflexion personnelle. Et ce n'est pas rien, je peux vous dire.

Alors, il nous faut réfléchir. Réfléchissons au type d'avenir dans lequel nous vivrons et au type d'OTAN que nous souhaitons. Mais surtout, à mon avis, il nous faut réfléchir à ce que nous devons faire maintenant pour que notre préférence se réalise.

Et je voudrais aborder cet après-midi les questions suivantes. Premièrement, dans quel monde vivrons-nous en 2020? Deuxièmement, quel type d'OTAN voulons-nous avoir en 2020? Et troisièmement, finalement, que devons-nous faire dès à présent pour notre idée de l'OTAN en 2020 devienne réalité.

En ce qui concerne le monde en 2020, je sais que d'autres conférenciers examineront ce sujet plus en détails. L'environnement international en 2020 sera marqué encore davantage par les forces de la mondialisation pour le meilleur ou pour le pire. Espérons alors pour ce qui est, je l'espère, du positif, en 2020, on aura des meilleurs perspectives économiques. On aura une plus grande interaction politique et sociale au niveau international. Et c'est le voeu que je forme: plus de démocratie et plus de tolérance. L'OTAN est démocratie. L'OTAN est tolérance après tout.

Et pour ce qui pourrait être négatif: la prolifération des armes de destruction massive; les cyber-attaques, on les a vues déjà, les cyber-attaques; les terroristes dotés de moyens de destruction sans précédent; les États en déliquescence, les États faillis; la lutte pour les ressources naturelles, l'énergie, eau; les répercussions du changement climatique sur la sécurité. Et je peux vous dire, il y en a. Il est évident, chers amis, que ces problèmes ne sont pas tous d'ordre militaire et qu'ils ne nécessiteront pas tous une intervention de l'OTAN. Mais il est tout aussi évident qu'il sera encore plus fréquemment fait appel à l'OTAN.

Il faut reconnaître que notre alliance, que l'OTAN a pour spécificité de combiner la recherche du consensus politique et la compétence militaire, ce qui, dans le monde actuel, constitue une denrée fort rare, je peux vous dire.

Voici quelques caractéristiques essentielles. Tout d'abord, il faudra qu'en 2020, l'OTAN soit bien intégré, plus profondément intégré dans le vaste concert des institutions nationales. On voit ce développement déjà maintenant.

Aujourd'hui, certes, la notion, et j'espère que vous la connaissez, la notion d'approche globale vient d'apparaître. Cependant, d'ici à 2020, il est possible qu'elle sera devenuee le paradigme central de la gestion de la sécurité. Et il faut que l'Alliance, il faut que l'OTAN s'adapte à cette nouvelle réalité.

Concrètement, cela signifie, à mon avis, qu'en 2020, l'OTAN aura des relations beaucoup plus structurées avec les Nations-Unies, avec l'Union européenne, avec l'OSCE, et j'ajoute avec l'Union africaine et les autres acteurs tant mondiaux que régionaux.

Un exemple, en septembre dernier, le secrétaire général des Nations-Unies, M. Ban Ki-moon et moi avons signé une déclaration conjointe ONU-OTAN. Et cela, à mon avis, a constitué une étape importante.

Mais en dernier ressort, il faut que les visées soient plus vastes et plus profondes. Il faut aboutir, à mon avis, à une large entente entre tous les acteurs institutionnels-clé et j'ajoute les acteurs civils et les acteurs militaires, les organisations gouvernementales et les organisations non-gouvernementales. Il faut absolument une meilleure coordination de la gestion des crises. Il ne faut pas chercher à improviser sur place dans des endroits comme les Balkans ou bien l'Afghanistan où on est en train, et c'est une première, de coopérer avec toutes sortes d'institutions et d'organisations.

Il nous faut des capacités militaires transformées. La seconde grande caractéristique de l'OTAN en 2020. La transformation des forces armées est lente, j'ajoute trop lente et coûteuse. Et du fait de la crise financière actuelle, il est certain que les progrès dans ce domaine vont être encore plus difficiles à réaliser. Je le dis, au jour que le G20 se réunit à Londres.

Cela dit, la crise financière pourrait par ailleurs constituer une occasion à saisir à condition de l'utiliser bien dans le but de rationaliser certains de nos programmes de défense et d'éliminer les doubles emplois. Et je le répète, la transformation de nos forces armées est trop lente. Et j'espère qu'en 2020, l'Alliance sera dotée de forces plus souples et plus déployables.

La troisième grande caractéristique de l'OTAN de demain sera sa taille. Aussi bien en termes de nouveaux membres qu'en termes de nouveaux partenaires. C'est mon avis que l'OTAN de 2020 sera plus grande que l'Alliance aujourd'hui. Je ne vais pas commencer à faire des hypothèses quant aux futurs membres éventuels et à la date de leur adhésion. Mais la porte de l'Alliance demeurera ouverte. Et à mon avis, c'est un principe important maintenant. Et ça devrait être un principe important en 2020.

D'ici à 2020 nous compterons peut-être encore plus de partenaires du monde entier qu'aujourd'hui. J'ajoute... Et c'est une notion importante pour moi, l'OTAN, non, ne deviendra pas pour autant une organisation mondiale. L'OTAN n'a pas l'ambition de devenir le gendarme du monde. L'OTAN n'est pas une deuxième Nations-Unies. Mais lorsqu'il faudra agir ou lorsqu'il faudra réagir à une crise, nos partenariats nous permettront de monter des coalitions plus fortes et de disposer de capacité supplémentaire. C'est ce qu'on voit en Afghanistan maintenant.

Et puisque je parle du nouveau siège, j'en arrive aux prochaines spécificités de la future... de l'Alliance.

In saying this I come to my final question. Many can switch off the translation equipment now. I can see who does it and who does not. And I was sitting next to one of the guests here, Canadian, "mais malheureusement pas Québécois," so it was the English language I heard. Not only to satisfy you, but to satisfy another part of the audience I'll continue in English, with my final question.

And that's an important one, because that is the question, what do we need to do now to ensure that the NATO of 2020 I described will come about?

I'll give you a few pointers. First, I think we need to further expand. We have done that, and I've tried to do it over the past five years. We have needed to further expand NATO's role as a forum for political debate.

And this means that we must be ready and we must be willing to discuss critical subjects, such as nuclear proliferation, energy security, or the security implications of climate change early and openly. NATO should be a forum for political debate.

And even if current operations will continue to occupy most of our time, it is no longer appropriate, in my view, to look at NATO merely as an instrument for force generation. This organization must give us more and I think NATO can give us more.

I'm still in the here and now. Second question... the second point. We need to succeed in Afghanistan. I do not belong, and I've never belonged to those who argue that NATO's survival is at stake in Afghanistan. It is not. But Afghanistan will nevertheless have an impact on NATO's future. In particular it will have an impact on how NATO is perceived by the rest of the world.

Thus far we have demonstrated that we do not flinch, even when the going gets rough or tough. And the going gets rough and the going gets tough, as we all know, from time to time.

But I think we've shown that NATO is able to learn and to adapt to changing realities on the ground. The innovative concept of the Provincial Reconstruction Teams, the effective integration of non-NATO partners in ISAF, the International Security Assistance Force, the training of the Afghan National Army -- all this demonstrates that NATO is capable of delivering.

We need to reinforce this success. Hearing me, I think you'll conclude that I am not of the gloom and doom brigade as far as Afghanistan is concerned. I'm not of the gloom and doom brigade. I think the challenges are huge, but if I look at Afghanistan in 2001 when the Taliban was chased out of the country, and I look at Afghanistan now we have made a lot of progress. But, I always add, and the Chairman of the Military Committee you already heard Admiral Giampaolo di Paola, will echo the challenges from time to time quite formidable. But no gloom and no doom. We might pick this up in the discussion.

But we need to reinforce this progress by enhancing our military and civilian efforts in Afghanistan and by enhancing our relation with Afghanistan neighbours. Notably Pakistan, but also other neighbours. And you have, without any doubt, followed the huge conference, the 'big tent' conference in The Hague two days ago, which exactly was trying to spread that message, to get that message across.

That NATO is very much part of that equation, that NATO must also work closer together with its partners. This is, by the way, that I'm saying very much in line with the results of the review President Obama has made in Washington in the United States and which saw the light at the end of last week.

A second point for the here and now, or a third point, I should say. We need to get our relationship with Russia back on track. I know there are friends from Russia in the audience. That's good. Because Russia bears a special weight and a special importance in European security and beyond. And that means put simply that if NATO and Russia agree, and we do on countering terrorism, for example, or on working closer together in and for Afghanistan, many things may become easier to achieve.

If we disagree, and we do disagree, I can tell you, on a number of subjects, and disagree fundamentally from time to time, but if we disagree in the end we both stand to lose. Even in 2020 Russia and NATO may still have differences over certain issues. It is from time to time a stormy relationship, but it should be a relationship between adults. And like your generation also adults, and you are adults, you fight from time to time. Russia and NATO fight, with arguments, not militarily from time to time. It will be a stormy relationship because interests do not always converge.

But my bottom line is that Russia needs NATO and NATO needs Russia. That is the reason that I'm saying we need to get our relationship with Russia back on track.

But I say again, like in 2009, in 2020 we might still have differences over issues.

So it's the time now to act upon this and to unlock the full potential of the NATO-Russia relationship, which was at a low ebb in August last year after the Georgia crisis. You know that in the meantime NATO Foreign Ministers have decided to re-engage and I hope that this process of re-engagement will be a success.

It's not always easy, because the rhetoric I hear from Moscow from time to time is not, let me put it mildly, always helpful in this regard.

Finally, I'm still in the here and now, in Strasbourg and Kehl and Baden-Baden, in France and Germany, NATO celebrating its 60th anniversary in the heart of Europe, which gives me great pleasure as an Atlanticist, indeed chairman, president, but also as somebody with a very strong European location. In the heart of Europe.

But we need to develop in NATO a new Strategic Concept. As you all know the current concept dates back to 1999 and the international security environment has changed fundamentally since then and it continues to evolve.

What does a new Strategic Concept do? Or what should it do? It must set out clearly NATO's role and relevance in that fast-moving international environment. Our Summit tomorrow and Saturday will give the green light, I hope, but I think for such a project. It will be a long process, and sometimes it might be quite controversial. And if you see those controversies, do realize that an Alliance of 28 nations argues and discusses. That's what democracy is all about. And I say 28 and I congratulate wholeheartedly, if they're in the audience, of friends from Albania and Croatia, because yesterday afternoon at 16:00 hours Brussels local time Albania and Croatia formally joined NATO. So we're not now 26, but we are 28. Which is a great success.

But 28 democracies and 28 nations, they'll argue and if they argue you should not conclude, hey, why are they arguing, but it where you should make your mark as successor generation, and that is where I end. Because this structure and this process, to come to a new Strategic Concept, will not be a close one, and closed one. In my opinion it is crystal clear that it will offer many inputs by the broader strategic community. You are part of that strategic community.

And there will be seminars, and there will be meetings and events like this where the NATO allies will ask opinions from people. What should such a new Strategic Concept look like? And it's important that you as the successor generation fully participate in this project through the Atlantic Treaty Association. I see my friends, I don't see him, but he's here, Karl Lamers and the YATAs that they all take together and please, Friend Karl, with me or with my successor, I should say, get the YATAs onboard in the preparation for the Strategic Concept, because I think it is of great importance that the successor generation is involved.

Finally, and I think Jeannine, my wife, knows very well how I'll end. At least I think she will.

Why do we attach so much attention to your generation? That is not only in four, five, six, seven years you hopefully will have an important role to play in your nations, in the nations you come from, be it in the private sector, be it in the public sector, be it in the non-governmental sector. You realize that in not so many years, and time flies, although it flies more when you get older like me than when you're as young as you are, but realize this: NATO came about in 1949. we, my wife and I, to take us as an example, were born on the right side of the Iron Curtain. We were born in a part of Europe which was completely free, where all the values so dear to all of us came completely automatically. For us they were normal. To say what you have to say, to meet whom you want to meet, to go to a church you want to go to, those values and all the other universal values we are defending, be it on NATO territory or in Afghanistan, came automatically.

Many of you come from nations where those values did not come automatically, because there as an Iron Curtain in Europe and there as a situation where in many of the nations on the wrong side of the Iron Curtain people could not say what they wanted to say publicly and people did not have this automaticity for the values we so all cherish.

And my message to you is this one: Never forget that those values will never come automatically, that they have to be protected, and that you as a successor generation are the guardians of those values.

NATO will turn 60 on Saturday morning. You were not at the birth of NATO. I was not. I'm one year older than NATO, in fact, and NATO will never be able to overtake me. But when NATO was founded it was exactly about this discussion, it was exactly about this. How can an Alliance of very much fewer nations than now, protect values we are considering universal values? Universal values. Applicable all over the world.

Nobody could have noticed in 1949 that NATO would be at the Hindu Kush in Afghanistan. But why are we there? Because there are people who want to destroy Afghanistan, and at the same time, destroy those values and indirectly destroy our own societies.

So please do realize, that is my wish, our wish, I can say, at the end of my mandate, because I'll step down in July, you are the generation who should keep that flame alive, that those values do not come automatically, but that they have to be guarded and defended every hour and every minute of the day.

That is my message. That is a nation message for the coming 60 years of NATO, and if I get that message across with you and with your generation then I have a happy wife, and I'm a happy man.