Opening speech

Ian Lesser, GMF Vice President 

Mr. Secretary General, thank you for being with us again. We look forward to the conversation. Deborah, over to you.

Deborah Haynes (Sky News):

Thank you very much and yes, I'd like to echo the thanks for giving us this time on such a busy day and time is limited so we'll get straight to business. Could you just tell us what are you expecting from this Summit what will success look like?

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg:

 I expect, and I am also quite confident that this summit will demonstrate unity, it will demonstrate the importance of Europe and North America standing together, and it will open a new chapter in our transatlantic relationship. But let me first thank the German Marshall Fund, and Ian, and you for organizing and for making this happening, this is a way for NATO to  also reach out to the broader public and to share with them our thoughts on the and the decision we're going to make during the day. 

Deborah Haynes (Sky News):

NATO has overcome challenges over the years and in particular internal challenges like in 2019, you'll remember Emmanuel Macron of France questioning NATO's brain death, you've obviously had the turbulence of the Donald Trump years that NATO endured. We're looking forward to 2030: can you just give us a sense of what you see the biggest threat that NATO will be facing in the next decade?

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg

 So I think what we have seen is that during the Cold War it was one threat. That was the Soviet Union and that was in one way, simple, it was not good but it was clear defined threat, the Soviet Union. Now, we live in an age of global competition. We live in a more unpredictable world, where NATO has to face many different threats and challenges at the same time, our core task our main responsibility remains the same, and that is to defend and protect all Allies, close to 1 billion people, and preserve peace, but the way we have to do that and the threats were responding to, they have changed, and they will continue to change.

And that's reason why we, today we will agree an ambitious forward-looking agenda the NATO 2030 Agenda, which is about exactly how to continue to adapt NATO, it is about reinforcing our collective defence, it's about strengthening our resilience, it's about shortening our technological edge, and it is for the first time for NATO to put climate and security, as an important issue for our Alliance, and many other issues, then the main message in that agenda is that as long as we are changing adapting then NATO will remain the most successful alliance in history. 

Deborah Haynes (Sky News):

It's really interesting about that whole impact on security of climate change. What can NATO do to help mitigate that, and why is that so important?

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg

So we… NATO [02.59] never be the lead organization, addressing all the aspects of climate change. But climate change is a crisis multiplier. Climate change will lead to more conflict over scarce resources, like water, land, millions of people will be forced to move, more migration. And that will exacerbate conflicts, and lead to new conflicts. So therefore it matters for our security, and therefore it also matters for NATO. I… fundamentally there are three things that NATO has to do. First of all, we need to assess, to fully understand the link between climate change and security.

Second, we need to adapt the way we conduct military operations and missions, rising sea level will affect a lot of our naval bases, heat waves, for instance, in Iraq where we're operating, which we have already seen that, will affect the kind of uniforms, how we can operate, how our soldiers can do their work out in extreme weather conditions; melting ice will change the strategic situation in the Nigh North, and so on. So climate change will directly affect how we develop equipment how we do exercises, our military planning, and all that. And thirdly, we need to contribute to the reduction of emissions.

Most of our Allies have now committed to the goal of net-zero net-zero emissions of greenhouse gases, and then of course we also need to reduce emissions from military operations. So, in adapting NATO, and what we'll agree today, is to also make sure that we include climate change in our military planning and procurement when we develop new technology, so NATO is able to respond to the security challenges posed by climate change. 

Deborah Haynes (Sky News):

Will there be a timescale on that when NATO militaries can all be net-zero in terms of their emissions?

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg:

We have not decided exactly now, on when that will happen, but we have agreed that Allies will first of all start to reduce their own emissions, military emissions, and we will set the goals for NATO, NATO missions and operations, but just the fact that this Summit is making climate change an important issue is a huge step forward, and then we will follow up with a lot of work on how to implement the decisions leaders are taking today. 

Deborah Haynes (Sky News)

We've obviously seen NATO adapting the way that it interprets Article Five, in terms of what constitutes an armed attack to include cyber. What about space? Is space going to be considered an area that, if like you know, some sort of weapon zapped a satellite, that could be deemed an armed attack that could invoke an Article Five response?

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg

I think it is important that our Article Five, which states that an attack on one will be regarded as an attack on all, that we all will respond, that we have a consistent approach to that, over all our domains, air, sea, land, but also cyber and space, and we will make it clear at this Summit that of course, any attack, on space capabilities like satellites and so on, or attacks from space will… could trigger Article Five, that's in a way just to clarify something which has been in many ways, obvious for a long time, because we have to be able to respond to any attack from any direction, also space and cyberspace, and that’s the reason why we have made this consistent approach to Article Five over the…the five domains, which we now have, air sea land, space and cyberspace.

Deborah Haynes (Sky News)

That's really interesting, and obviously it’s well a new [6:57] part that we're seeing from the kind of language coming out of NATO, we're expecting to have a sharper language about China, about the challenges that China poses. Could you explain, like why is that, why is that deemed necessary? Obviously there's going to be balance against the opportunities and the need to engage. But isn't there a concern that if NATO does sharpen its language, it could actually antagonize a rival, a competitor and potentially raise the prospect of conflict?

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg

China is not our adversary, and we need to engage with China on important issues, as climate change, or for instance the situation in Afghanistan, or arms control, and other issues.
At the same time, the global balance of power is shifting, with the rise of China, and we have seen a course of behavior by China, not least in the South China Sea. We have, we have seen, and we see that they are investing heavily in new modern military, nuclear capabilities, long-range missile systems, submarines, they have… China already has the second largest defense budget in the world, they already have [8.15] the largest Navy in the world. And they don’t share our values, and they are cracking down on democratic protests in Hong Kong, persecuting Uyghurs and all the minorities in their country. So, the rise of China poses challenges for NATO Allies, and we need to respond to that together as an Alliance. The interesting thing is that, you know, in the strategic concept we agreed for NATO in 2010, which is the current strategic concept, China is not mentioned with a single word.

The first time, Heads of State Government in NATO addressed China at all, was at our Summit in December in London in 2019, so 18 months ago; that’s the first time. At this Summit, Leaders will want formulate a common position on China also taking into account the need to, to stand together also when it comes to responding to the security consequences of the rise of China.

Deborah Haynes (Sky News)

So, see…[09.20] You don’t see China as a threat, but Russia clearly is still seen as a significant threat by NATO. We know that after this Summit, the first Summit that President Joe Biden is going to be attending, he'll be off to meet his Russian counterpart in Switzerland, Vladimir Putin. What are you hoping that the US President will, in terms of a message, deliver to President Putin, from the perspective of NATO? 

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg

So I welcome the fact that President Biden will meet in a couple of hours all the other NATO Leaders here in Brussels, at the NATO Summit. And I'm also sure that the other Leaders will welcome the opportunity to consult with President Biden ahead of his meeting with President Putin, because NATO has been a platform for coordination and consultations on our relationship with Russia, and especially on arms control, and the meeting that President Biden will have with President Putin is fully in line with NATO's dual-track approach, deterrence, defense, and dialogue. 

Dialogue is not a sign of weakness. We need to talk to Russia, it's our neighbor, partly [10.34] to strive for a better relationship, but even without a better relationship in the foreseeable future, we need to manage a difficult relationship with Russia on risk reduction transparency to prevent incidents and accidents when we have now more military personnel down our [10’.50] borders, but also of course to address the important issue of arms control. We welcome the decision by Russia and United States and Russia to extend the new START agreement that limits the number of long range nuclear weapons, but this should only be the first step, and therefore we also hope that the two presidents can make some progress on issues related to the arms control, because we don't want a new arms phase,[11.16] and we want to expand and strengthen the arms control agenda, and include more weapon systems, and [inaudible] [11.27] include China in global arms control. 

Deborah Haynes (Sky News)

If you look at the pattern of Russia's behavior over the last few years, I mean even recently with the buildup of Russian forces on Ukraine's border, allegations of meddling in democratic elections, cyber attacks, and the fact that Belarus’ President felt - who is backed by Putin - felt able to force that Ryanair flight down into take a journalist off the flight. Isn’t it the case that, despite all the rhetoric all the language and all the transformation that NATO has done since 2014, that deterrence just isn't working?

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg

What we see is… are aggressive actions of Russia, and this is part of a pattern we have seen over many years. At the same time, NATO has responded in a very firm way. After the illegal annexation of Crimea, we have implemented the biggest reinforcement of collective defense in the generation. For the first time in our history, we have competent battle groups in the eastern part of the Alliance, in the Baltic countries, Poland. We have more air-policing, more naval presence, and most importantly, we have seven years, seven consecutive years of increased defense spending across Europe and Canada. So that's a very strong message to Russia, that we are there to defend and protect all Allies, not to provoke a conflict, but to prevent the conflict, to preserve the peace, and… so to prevent that anything like what we have seen against Ukraine or Georgia will never happen against a NATO Ally.

So, deterrence works, and no NATO Ally has been subject to and armed attack. And that's not… and we have been able to preserve peace for NATO Allies. Then, the challenge is that we now see different forms of aggression, through cyberspace, hybrid attacks, and that's the reason why we need to adapt and change the way we work together in NATO, including strengthening cyber defenses, resilience, technology, and all the other issues which we are addressing as part of NATO 2030.

Deborah Haynes (Sky News)

And I know you don’t normally like to talk about individual NATO states, but it would be remissive of me not to ask about how the change in personnel at the White House is impacting NATO, the ability of NATO to act. What's it like having Joe Biden to deal with instead of Donald Trump?

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg

I had the privilege to meet President Biden in the White House last Monday, a week ago, and it was great to see his strong personal and powerful commitment to NATO. He knows NATO very well. And he really believes in the idea of North America and Europe working together in NATO, so therefore it will be great also to welcome him now soon, to the NATO Summit here in Brussels. Then I think that, of course there is no way to hide that over the last years we had some challenging discussions among Allies. But I think that the main lesson learned is that NATO as an institution, as a multilateral Alliance goes beyond individual political leaders. NATO can weather different political winds, and we will do that again, because it is in the national security interest of each and every Ally to stand together.

So, yes, there are different leaders they have different opinions sometimes they disagree, but we always are able to unite around our core task, that we are safer together than alone and that's even more important now, when we have a more competitive world. And the other one thing that also reinforces this message is that when you look at the opinion polls, they go a bit up and down, but the main message in all NATO allied countries is that its strong public support to NATO. And that includes the United States, there is very strong public support to NATO, US NATO membership, and very strong bipartisan support for NATO. So, yes, there were some differences there will be differences in the future. But as long as we make sure that NATO continues to adapt as we do in the meeting today, absolutely confident that NATO will remain the cornerstone for our collective defense for Europe and North America. 

Deborah Haynes (Sky News)

And do you think even that Donald Trump was actually good for NATO because it kind of gave everyone a bit of a kick, and maybe kicked out of… kicked complacency out of certain European countries to not take the US for granted?

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg

He had a direct start [16.27], at the same time I think that the lesson is the importance of organizing our partnership through institutions that is not dependent on specific individuals, for good or for bad, then I also think that what we have seen is that NATO allies have stepped up, both investing more and doing more together but that's a trend we have seen over the last years. 

Deborah Haynes (Sky News)

You mean, just on [16.57] the money front, which is obviously important that this agenda that NATO is going to be agreeing is ambitious, but as we've seen that transformation comes at a price. And you've been a strong advocate of the sort of the common, the NATO common fund, but I've been told by a number of sources that in the run-up to this Summit there was some pushback on the idea of increasing the NATO common cund by France in particular, opposing they were worried really at that potentially, if you increase that common fund it could detract from EU defense. Are you able to say anything about that,or about the importance of the common funding for NATO?

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg

First of all, the most important thing is that today, NATO leaders will agree a wide range of concrete measures on how to strengthen NATO, on technology, on resilience, on collective defense, on working more closely with partners, on climate change. And also on how to train partners, so we help to stabilize our neighborhood. This is the ambitious forward-looking, NATO 2030 Agenda, we will agree that with a higher vision for our Alliance, and there's no way we can do more, and set high ambitions without the necessary funding. Therefore we need to continue to invest, and we are in a good track with seven consecutive years of increased defense spending across Europe and Canada, but we also should invest more together, and I'm confident that leaders today will agree that we should match this higher level of ambition, with increased investment in NATO's budgets, including by adding funding for a wide range of activities, which are important for our security, more readiness, more exercises, command and control, pre-positioned equipment, training partners, and so on.

Of course there are always discussions when we discuss the resources and budgets, that's in every institution, every government in every national organization. We have had the process, and, and the original proposal was only to increase the military budget, one of NATO's three common-funded budgets. Today, I'm confident that other leaders will agree to increase not only one but three budgets, the civil budget, the military budget and the budget for infrastructure, and by increasing all three budgets, and adding funding to all three of them, we will be able to do even more. So I welcome that, that at the end of the day will have very good decision on the ambitions on what we want to do together, but also the need to properly fund and resource this higher level of ambition, across all the three NATO budgets. 

Deborah Haynes (Sky News)

Obviously leaders are thinking about the future, and adapting for the future, but right now, NATO troops are withdrawing from Afghanistan. Long operation, nearly 20 years now. 
Is it a matter of regret for you, that NATO forces are leaving Afghanistan as violence is growing once again, the Taliban is on the rise, the chance of a peace process looks increasingly unlikely?

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg

We have been, and I have been honest and clear-eyed about the risks that the decision to end our military presence in Afghanistan entails, for the future of Afghanistan. That was not an easy decision.

Let me also… sorry… pay tribute to all those who have served, and also to those who have paid the ultimate price in our mission in Afghanistan over almost two decades, then the intention was never to stay in Afghanistan, forever. And we have gradually moved from combat operation of more than 100,000 troops at the beginning of this year we were around 10,000 NATO troops. And this year, we will end our research support mission, our military operation in Afghanistan. But as we wind down our military mission, we will continue to provide support to Afghans, with funding for the Afghan security forces, - that's absolutely critical - with a continued civilian presence, to provide [capacity-building][21.55] advice. We are looking into how we can provide out of country training for the Afghan security forces, and especially the special operation forces. And we are also working with all the NATO Allies on how we can maintain some critical infrastructure, especially the International Airport in Kabul.

So yes, we are ending our military mission, but no we are not ending our support for the, for Afghans, we realize that there are risks, but at some stage, the Afghans have to take over responsibility and be fully responsible for their own future. This was not an easy decision. And, and I know that some Allies also have different views as we consulted and discussed, but we had thorough consultations. After the Biden administration started their deliberations on the future presidents in Afghanistan, we have actually had six meetings of the North Atlantic Council. We have had three Ministerial meetings, and a number of bilateral meetings, phone calls, and so on. Also meetings in Kabul, where we have consulted closely before we made the final decision, and now we are united in ending the mission in a responsible way. But at the same time, continue to provide support to Afghans. 

Deborah Haynes (Sky News)

It is not just a matter of regret for you personally, I mean, the fact is, yes, support might be continuing in different ways but all that blood or that treasure, and yet we're leaving it, and NATO is leaving behind a very unstable situation and, you now, dangerous for the Afghan population.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg

But there is no risk-free way in Afghanistan. We could either end the mission, as we do now, and then continue to provide the support in other ways, funding out-of-country training, advi… civilian presence. And that road, or that path entails risks, no doubt about that. And there is a very difficult and fragile, the very difficult situation in Afghanistan. But the alternative to stay was also an option that entailed risks. For more violence, more casualties, and even perhaps the need to increase the number of NATO troops, because as I said we have gone from more than 100,000 to 10,000, and the whole plan has all the way been to enable the Afghans to take care of their own security, -

Deborah Haynes (Sky News)

A failed plan in that sense, - 

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg

While when we arrived there were hardly any Afghan security forces at all, now we have a well-trained, well-equipped, Afghan security force of around 300,000 personnel. That's not… that's no guarantee for success, but it is very different Afghanistan, and the Afghans are much more capable of taking care of their own security now with 300,000, trained security personnel, compared to where they were before we came, or back in 2001, 2002. And then, the main reason for us to go into Afghanistan, of course  was to fight international terrorism, to prevent it, Afghanistan, from becoming a safe haven for international terrorists. But of course, by being there we also helped promote social and economic progress. And we will continue to [broad] [25.30] support but in other ways to try to preserve those hard-won gains. 

Deborah Haynes (Sky News)

Could we switch on [25.36] questions from our audience, now. And unfortunately I don’t have the names of the people asking these questions, so I'll just sort of read them out. And the first one is, they want to know what… how you see the role of NATO, and it kind of follows on from what we're talking about in Afghanistan, but how do you see the role of NATO in the process of countries that are recovering from conflict with Syria and Libya, the first among many?

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg

Well, it depends of course, which kind on countries we talk about, but in general, I believe that NATO has an untapped potential and that we can do more when it comes to train local forces, build local capacity. And, and the idea is that prevention is better than intervention, which is what we should do whenever we can to prevent situations where we are forced into big military combat operations.

As was the case in Afghanistan, that's one of the reasons why we have been so focused on building local Afghan security forces so they can take over more and more of their responsibility. That's the reason why we are now training Iraqi security forces and stepping up in Afghanistan when it comes to training, capacity-building, to enable them to stabilize their own country.
And that's also the reason why, after we as we… we were…we’re part of NATO Allies… we all… NATO [26.58] and NATO Allies are part of the global coalition to defeat Daesh. That was originally a very big combat operation. And of course, sometimes we are forced to go into that kind of big combat operation, as we did. As the global coalition in Iraq and Syria. Our focus now, as we wind down the combat operations in the global coalition, is to then build up capacity building.

And again, one of the, one of the eight proposals we will… nations will agree as part of NATO 2030 and one of the reasons to also invest more together in the NATO common-funded budgets, is that enables us to train more local forces, build more local capacity, and thereby stabilize our neighborhood.

Deborah Haynes (Sky News)

So, there’s a couple of questions dealing with Russian activity in the Black Sea over the last few years and currently, and one person asks in particular what additional steps, do you see NATO taking to increase stability in the back… in the Black Sea, and also across the Balkans.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg

While NATO has been and still is absolutely very much present in the Western Balkans, first of all we have new members from that region, over the last few years, we have demonstrated that NATO’s door is open with getting new members like North Macedonia and Montenegro, that's important, but we also work with Partners in the region, and we have still the KFOR mission in Kosovo. So we are present, we have a history, and we have a responsibility to continue to help stabilize the region. In the Black Sea we have increased our presence. Three of the littoral states in the Black Sea are NATO members: Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania. We have more air policing and more naval presence. We have more exercises, and again the NATO 2030 agenda is also about how can we invest more in deterrence and defense activities, including in the Black Sea region.

And then we have two very important Partners, Georgia and Ukraine. And we are stepping up the cooperation with them, including helping Ukraine with developing their naval capabilities. I visited Odessa, some time ago when I saw how NATO trainers helped to educate Ukrainian cadets and naval personnel, and we're also working with Georgia on Black Sea security.

 Deborah Haynes (Sky News)

Actually on Georgia there's a question here, saying that we've heard many times that NATO's doors are open to Georgia. When exactly will these… will this door open, and can Georgia expect a roadmap in the nearest future?

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg

I expect that NATO Allies today will recommit, confirm the decisions we have taken before.

[Not least] [30.10] that at the Bucharest Summit, where we stated clearly that Georgia will become a member, but we didn't provide any dates, and we will not provide any dates today, either.

Our focus is on the reform, our focus is to continue to support Georgia in modernizing their defense and security institutions, and the message is that, of course, NATO's door is open, we have demonstrated that over the last couple of years with Montenegro and North Macedonia joining. The other message is that it's only for the [inaudible][30.46] country, Georgia, and the 30 allies to decide on enlargement of our Alliance. Russia has no right to interfere in that process. It’s a sovereign right of any country to decide his own path including what kind of security arrangements he is going to be part of. 

Deborah Haynes (Sky News)

And there's a really interesting question here. It says, NATO's comprehensive political guidance endorsed in the 2006 Riga summit - I'm sure you know about that, having swatted up [31.16], and noted that the spread of WMD so weapons of mass destruction, and the possibility that terrorists will acquire WMD as the principal threat to the alliance, over the next 10 to 15 years. So, given that we're now past that, how do you assess the situation today?

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg

 That's still a challenge as the proliferation of nuclear weapons, either to states, or to terrorist organizations is, is one of the many threats and challenges we face in a more unpredictable world, and that's exactly also why we need to strengthen NATO in so many different ways at the same time, delivering our core task, but addressing many more threats than we did many years ago during the Cold War.

Deborah Haynes (Sky News)

Okay well unfortunately I'd like to ask you many more questions, but we can't get through them all, this morning, but thank you ever so much for speaking to us.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg

Thanks so much for having me, thank you.