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Ukraine And European Security - International Mechanisms
As Non-Military Options For National Security Of Ukraine.
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Chapter 4. "Evolutionary" Approach" - Ukraine And European International Establishments.
Section 4. Ukraine and NATO.
4.3. Future Prospects
All points mentioned above naturally arise a question "How Ukraine can be placed further within the NATO security structure after its enlargement and how the NATO can contribute to Ukraine's security through its current capability?"
Theorethically, an optimal and most workable solution for Ukraine would be the admission to the Alliance or signing of a bilateral treaty with NATO on "1+1" formula, which would include clause on guarantees and would give Ukraine status similar to that of full NATO member.
Nonetheless, as it was mentioned at the beginning of this chapter, it is more effective, that in further cooperation with the Alliance, Ukraine will have to be content with the offer of participation at the North Athlantic Cooperation Council and individual program within the "Partnership for Peace", at least for foreseen period.
This assuming is realistic, if to consider a fact, that functioning of NATO, as well as EU, WEU, OSCE on regional, and the UN on the global levels cannot be taken into account without an understanding of the policies of leading powers in Euro-Atlantic space - US, Russia, Germany, the United Kingdom and France. In this light, Ukraine should not await on any kind of "special" status in relations with the NATO in the nearest future - it is seems, that no one in Brussells is prepared to offer such status for Ukraine now, and no one in Moscow is interested in sharing "special" rank with Ukraine.
Another kind of solution for Ukrainian security challenges, recently proposed by Zbigniew Brzezinski through completion of an "overarching NATO-Russian treaty", which should "include a special annex containing a joint, formal, and very explicit commitment by both parties to Ukraine's independence and security"(305) seems to be a promising theoretical substance for further elaboration, but there is a doubt that it will fully address Ukraine's concern of becoming a "grey" unsecured area under Russian domination.
The effective aproach for future prospects in mutual cooperation should be based rather on pragmatic perception of Ukraine's needs and current NATO capabilities. And perhaps, there is the North Athlantic Cooperation Council, that can take up its role in accomplishig this task.
On the eve of inevitable NATO enlargement, NACC can and should play an important function in promoting dialogue among first entries of the Alliance and countries which will not joint NATO in the nearby prospect. The imminent developments in relations of these countries exemplify the need for a systematic exchange of views as well as for new collaborative efforts to establish a workable and realistic set of measures, aimed at building confidence.
It will add significantly to the prevention of existing dangerous developments in the field of European security, like arise of a new block system through the development of existing CIS collective security structure in a more comprehencive defence alliance, competing NATO in Europe.(306) There are no any doubts, that security concerns of the Former Soviet republics, foremost Ukraine, Baltic states, Moldova and Azerbaidzan can be eliminated only if the CIS is joined to a broader system of collective security and becomes an open, rather than closed structure. In this sence, a role of NATO and its cooperative initiatives can hardly be miscalculated.
Besides the new political environment, which obviously will come as a result of enlarged Alliance and should be addressed by necessary dialogue even before the expansion, the necessary concentration should also be paid to the simply technical questions. For instance, as it was recently reported the relations between Ukraine and Romania may became even more complicated due to Romanian intentions to site NATO nuclear weapons on its soil. Ukrainian authorities have already negotiated a close talks regarding this issue, the results of which, seemed however, not to be satisfactory enough for Kiev.(307) Finally, given one of the crucial tasks of current Ukrainian foreign policy to clarify the positions of Ukrainian leadership on political and security matters, one also could not diminish, but highlight the meaning of the NACC and Individual program witith Partnership for Peace as yet another means for pursuing this goal.