Individual Democratic Institutions Research Fellowships 1994-1996

Administrative and Cadre Reform in Russia: Opportunities And Perils For Democracy Leonid Rodin [Back to Index] Chapter I. War In Chechnya: A Factor Of Multiple Instability I.2. Adopting the Fateful Decision Various explanations,or combinations of these may be offered in connection with the above: The decision to act in December 1994 might have been taken by the Russian government in an entirely haphazard and opportunistic way,typical of its general 'modus operandi',when specific moves would come not as the result of indepth analysis and concerted preparations but on the 'spur-of-the-moment' inclination by hierarcy's top-most strata, possibly motivated more by emotion than reason. If this was the case than most probably one or both of the two circumstance could have taken place:Boris Yeltsin was influenced by someone's advice,that really overwhelmed him in a most remarkable way;or a specific event /events/ took place that produced a similar effect warranting immediate and spectacular action. It would not be at all surprising to find out that whoever was prompting the President to act on the Chechen crisis in a forceful way was primarily trying to achieve the goal of self-promotion.In the fairly competitive conditions that characterize Bysantian Kremlin politics distinction may be earned with recommendations that provide immediate rather than long-term benefits and advantages for the power. The premise on the opportunistic nature of decision-making on Chechnya does not contradict another possible reason for the war beginning in late 1994 which had to do with the evident desire by the Presidential 'party' to stiffle any internal opposition, long in advance of parliamentary and presidential elections.Is it only a coincidence that military actions against Grozny were commenced in December of that year,exactly 12 months ahead of the then tentatively scheduled elections to the State Duma? Admittedly, a successful anti-cessionist operation in the Chechen Republic could send a powerful message to opposition groups everywhere else in the country. It may also not be ignored that severe complications that emerged in the process of the Chechen operations were used by various groupings within and outside official structures to promote their own positions which reconfirmes that the whole episode was as important for the internal stability of Russia /its territorial integrity,constitutional composition,international status,etc/ as it was central for the balance of power at all levels of the political spectrum. It must also be noted in this connection that the Chechen affair emerged as a single most important issue in the process of the formation of civil society in Russia. In particular the war in the Chechen Republic had sensitized the Russian public opinion in a most dramatic way to the dangers of the revival of authoritarianism and led to increased human rights activities.It had also embolded all kind of opposition groups to undertake political,legal and other actions against the war in Chechnya /i.e. submitting the issue of the legality of government decrees and other decisions on introducing troops into Chechnya and using military force against its own people to the judgement of the Constitutional Court; initiating impeachment procedures against the President and carrying out a no-confidence vote against the government,etc/. Controversies surrounding the Chechen affair were bound to become central for the forthcoming parliamentary and presidential elections.At the same time,the malhandling of military operations in Chechnya had dramatically changed personal fortunes of a number of prominent politicians and resulted in the demise of some of them. As the result of one of the most serious complications of the war - the taking of hostages at the Russian city of Budennovsk,where Chechen terrorists managed to inflict a heavy blow to the reputation of the supreme power, three major personalities,resonsible for the conduct of forceful actions on behalf of Moscow - Minister of the Interior Victor Yerin,Head of the Federal Security Service Sergei Stepashin and Minister of Nationalities Nikolai Yegorov - had to be relieved of their positions at the background of public outroar in the face of Budennovsk drama.