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Energy use is not a side issue for security. Power outages in many NATO states have shown how vulnerable we all are without sufficient energy. As the demand for more energy resources increases, how can we make sure this does not lead to conflict?

Fuel for thought?

Recent years have seen real strains

already showing on energy,

food and water resources,

and key environmental factors.

A globalized world has clear benefits,

but these are some

of its clearest drawbacks.

Change in the Arctic has its effects.

And nobody is immune

to these effects.

That there are cascading impacts,

and once you lose too much sea ice,

this changes the jet stream.

A number

of the extreme weather conditions,

perhaps even those we have

been experiencing this summer,

can be attributed

to changes in the Artic.

In Germany we had

electricity blackouts in 2005, 2006

and we were totally surprised.

It effected not just the region itself,

it was actually effecting eleven

other EU states and even Morocco.

We can already see

some very clear signs

of the ice cap melting, of glaciers

disappearing, and if you look...

If you see the importance of glaciers

for instance for drinking water,

maybe less in Europe,

but for sure if you go the Himalayas,

and if the glaciers disappear,

the drinking water

for millions will disappear,

then definitely there is a problem.

So let’s take energy. How can we

create better energy security?

Energy security has

basically three elements.

One is supply security, which also

has to do with the overall availability.

It has to do with the questions

of economic competitiveness,

particularly relevant

for the energy industry.

And it has to do with environmental

issues, such as climate change.

So, all three factors determine

energy security on a national level,

as well as

on a regional and global level.

The basic challenge we see,

is that you need to balance

these three factors with each other.

Changes in needs has led

to changes in many policies too.

Energy is increasingly

becoming a driver

for international relations,

including security.

Alongside

of the globalization of economics,

there is a globalization of security.

Often also the result of new

dependencies, new infrastructures,

be it information

and communication infrastructures,

be it energy infrastructures,

such as pipelines,

such as the growing LNG capabilities

and imports we have.

Part of the challenge is trying

to adapt an energy infrastructure

that was built for a different age.

We have built our infrastructure

assuming that it won’t change,

and it’s changing dramatically.

We see this all over the world.

And our internal economic

structures have been built

right into that physical infrastructure.

Look at Shanghai.

Shanghai is a city like New Orleans.

It’s in a delta, it’s subsiding,

it’s in a typhoon pathway...

It is in the wrong place.

And not only are our traditional

energy resources diminishing,

the world population is also rising.

There is an assessment made

of China’s need for resources.

And they said:

We don’t have enough resources,

so we will reduce demand

by reducing the population.

But at the same time they have

started to secure supply externally.

We have

a tremendous increasing demand

in the mid-term

perspective until 2035.

The IEA is expecting

40% more energy we need

and 70, 80% is coming

still from the fossil fuels.

Finally, there is the challenge

of forming a collective response.

Acting individually

could make the problems worse.

If countries are following

not a very cooperative way,

but a very national way of just...

of guaranteeing national

energy resource security.

Take China, which is very much

seeing that from the political lead

through the prism of regime stability,

then it leads to a situation

where the competition is increasing.

And the competition can

very often then also result even

to more political conflicts or beyond.

So, are we rushing headlong into an

environmental and energy disaster?

Not necessarily.

The solutions in a way already exist.

There is a lot of technology.

There is the knowledge

of what is going to happen.

And there is the possibility

to use much less fossil fuels.

There is the possibility

to save a lot of water.

So it is much more

a matter of political will

to engage into new policies.

Fuel for thought?

Recent years have seen real strains

already showing on energy,

food and water resources,

and key environmental factors.

A globalized world has clear benefits,

but these are some

of its clearest drawbacks.

Change in the Arctic has its effects.

And nobody is immune

to these effects.

That there are cascading impacts,

and once you lose too much sea ice,

this changes the jet stream.

A number

of the extreme weather conditions,

perhaps even those we have

been experiencing this summer,

can be attributed

to changes in the Artic.

In Germany we had

electricity blackouts in 2005, 2006

and we were totally surprised.

It effected not just the region itself,

it was actually effecting eleven

other EU states and even Morocco.

We can already see

some very clear signs

of the ice cap melting, of glaciers

disappearing, and if you look...

If you see the importance of glaciers

for instance for drinking water,

maybe less in Europe,

but for sure if you go the Himalayas,

and if the glaciers disappear,

the drinking water

for millions will disappear,

then definitely there is a problem.

So let’s take energy. How can we

create better energy security?

Energy security has

basically three elements.

One is supply security, which also

has to do with the overall availability.

It has to do with the questions

of economic competitiveness,

particularly relevant

for the energy industry.

And it has to do with environmental

issues, such as climate change.

So, all three factors determine

energy security on a national level,

as well as

on a regional and global level.

The basic challenge we see,

is that you need to balance

these three factors with each other.

Changes in needs has led

to changes in many policies too.

Energy is increasingly

becoming a driver

for international relations,

including security.

Alongside

of the globalization of economics,

there is a globalization of security.

Often also the result of new

dependencies, new infrastructures,

be it information

and communication infrastructures,

be it energy infrastructures,

such as pipelines,

such as the growing LNG capabilities

and imports we have.

Part of the challenge is trying

to adapt an energy infrastructure

that was built for a different age.

We have built our infrastructure

assuming that it won’t change,

and it’s changing dramatically.

We see this all over the world.

And our internal economic

structures have been built

right into that physical infrastructure.

Look at Shanghai.

Shanghai is a city like New Orleans.

It’s in a delta, it’s subsiding,

it’s in a typhoon pathway...

It is in the wrong place.

And not only are our traditional

energy resources diminishing,

the world population is also rising.

There is an assessment made

of China’s need for resources.

And they said:

We don’t have enough resources,

so we will reduce demand

by reducing the population.

But at the same time they have

started to secure supply externally.

We have

a tremendous increasing demand

in the mid-term

perspective until 2035.

The IEA is expecting

40% more energy we need

and 70, 80% is coming

still from the fossil fuels.

Finally, there is the challenge

of forming a collective response.

Acting individually

could make the problems worse.

If countries are following

not a very cooperative way,

but a very national way of just...

of guaranteeing national

energy resource security.

Take China, which is very much

seeing that from the political lead

through the prism of regime stability,

then it leads to a situation

where the competition is increasing.

And the competition can

very often then also result even

to more political conflicts or beyond.

So, are we rushing headlong into an

environmental and energy disaster?

Not necessarily.

The solutions in a way already exist.

There is a lot of technology.

There is the knowledge

of what is going to happen.

And there is the possibility

to use much less fossil fuels.

There is the possibility

to save a lot of water.

So it is much more

a matter of political will

to engage into new policies.

предложения
Ахмед Раафат Амин,
22, Кайро
Бюлетин
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