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1994-1996
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Ukraine And European Security - International Mechanisms
As Non-Military Options For National Security Of Ukraine.

Bohdan Lupiy
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GoChapter 4. "Evolutionary" Approach" - Ukraine And European International Establishments.
GoSection 6. Ukraine and International Financial Institutions.

6.1 Future Prospects

As Economics' hypothesis of Jeffrey Suchs presupposes, the international financing is usually a precondition for a successful economic transfromation of countries in transition from centralized to market economies.(336) This theoretical assume has found its illustration on the soil of Ukrainian economy - during starting phases of developing its new economic policy under international support, Ukraine showed some indications of stabilization.

On the other hand, initial period of any country's economic transformation is usually associated with unpopular and pain policies and is not likely to get necessary responce from the population and local players, or industrial lobbies. This feature is also evidently reflected in current internal instability but all these developments, nevertheless do not diminish the necessity of further credible pace in economic policy conduct.

Since independence Ukrainian leadership has governed its policies through avoiding 'shock measures' in economic reformation, awaring of possible social clashes and complying with resistance of pro-Communist minded parliamentarian opposition, while keeping the country in yet declining central-planned-economy-like system.

Regardless its understandable crediblily one or two years ago, the argument of 'possible social clash' is considerably discouraging now and there is no way to bypass necessary and even, painful reformation of the country. Indeed, this reasoning deems to be hardly reassuaring for Western investors - mostly all Ukraine's Central and even some Eastern European neighours have succeeded in economic reformation, - just to mention Baltic states, which also have considerable economic and social problems, but promisive plans to rebuild their economies and positive signs of eventual economic stability after completion of initial reformation.

Further delays in the necessary credible steps will inevitably make Ukraine's economic and political crisis more deeper, with all upcoming consequences on domestic level. As many studies argue that cause of people's dissatisfaction is not a radical reform in Ukraine, but absence of any practical outcomes of it.(337)

Ukrainian leaders, hence, have to do much more to clear to the West, their factual plans and concrete measures for their implementation in country's economic reformation. This will give more Western assurances and financial aid to go ahead with necessary economic period.


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