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Ukraine And European Security - International Mechanisms
As Non-Military Options For National Security Of Ukraine.
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Chapter 3. "Gradual" Approach
Section 2. Ukraine and the CIS
2.5 Ukraine and the future of the CIS
There is no uncertainty, that Ukraine's cooperation in the framework of the CIS is an important factor, which influences and will affect its foreign policy proceeding. It also seems obvious, that if all positive achievements of the CIS are to be developed into the EU-type democratic regional institution, it would be on Ukraine's favour.
The creation of regional institutions often poses important questions about how this multi-national establishments influence political, economic, societal and military identity of involved nation-states. Scholars point out that regional organizations have been growing faster and working more effective, than global organizations, but with time, patient, wisdom economic cooperation will spill over into the political sectors.(193)
Apparently, that success of any kind of integration (global, regional or sub-regional) depends on achieving common goals among members and consequently, the integrational processes often tend to bring members' political, economic, military and cultural features closer to a similar level. In the EU, for instance, the political standardization moves member-states toward pluralistic parliamentary democracies, free movements of goods, people and services, etc. In addition, in the case of Western European integration the inequality in territorial size of participants do not affect their role in the whole process of planning, decision-making and policy implementation. Geographically large Germany and geographically small Nethellands seem to benefit mutually from their participation in the EU.
In contrast, differentiation within the CIS indicated its growing fragmentation, and policy represented a less coherent vision of development, than the common denominator of agreement between groups of countries with different views on its evolution and future. Even in economic sphere, majority of the CIS economic agreements, have not been implemented, and mostly negotiations between the CIS states were carried out on bi-lateral basis.(194)
Lacking an effective institutional framework and being weak in the political sphere, the CIS has proved itself as an inadequate forum for the resolutions of the conflicts and problems besetting the countries. It could do little to end the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh or fighting in Moldova. Moreover, the crises in the CIS states raised a question of Russia's post-imperial peace-keeping role.
Ukraine is driven to cooperation within the Commonwealth mainly by the economic requirements and the development of this option in Ukraine's CIS policy, entailed the danger of Ukraine, being drawn into collective security structures. In this regard, many academicians argue, that military and defence organizations are often the results of the spillover effect of economic integration within international organizations.(195) Thus, Ukraine's present economic dependence on Russia and its possible translation into exact political dependence is seen to be quite important question. Such obvious linkages can force Ukraine to consider in future any economic gains against the lose of its sovereignty.
Following, when discussing the question of Ukraine's prospects for block formation within the CIS Collective Security System under 1992 Treaty of Tashkent,(CSS) there are some quite reasonable suggestions against the credibility of such development.
Firstly, entering the CSS by Ukraine will inevitably cause country's dependency on internal situation in Russia. Given immense disparity in power and potential between Russia and other CIS members, such scenario would lead Ukraine to subordinative kind of partnership with and inferior position to Russia.
It is needless to say, that to be effective inter-state formations, regional organizations should equally affect one's civil, political and economic systems. Regional defence establishments should be mutually advantageous for all participant and military domination by one strong member of weaker one should be avoided. Previous Russian activities within the CIS domain have definitely shown that currently this important criteria could not be satisfied.
Secondly, surviving through big domestic problems and political instability, Russia nevertheless, remains and is likely to be one of the big powers in the future. It means that Russia will always have its interests far beyond the CIS space, and Ukraine may be engaged in disputes or conflicts between Russia and other states. Ukraine does not behold a threat to its security from other countries. Still, Russia remains to be seen by Ukrainian leaders as main potential security risk.
Thirdly, whereas in their CIS tactic Russian leaders do not distinguish between collective defence and collective security (as witnessed by the similarity between the CIS Collective System and the NATO Treaty)(196), the CSS might resemble the Warsaw Treaty Organization and Ukraine's membership in this block could be negatively comprehended by its Western and Central European neighours.
Thus, as one can assert, the prospect of Ukraine's possible participation in the CIS Collective Security System would currently rather diminish, then protect and strengthen country's security.
On the other hand, if Ukraine will move to void itself from the CIS and will not play an active role as a solid regional political power second only to Russia, the Commonwealth is in peril of becoming a Russia-controlled domain. In this case, the Commonwealth may be developed without Ukraine's significant role, and consequently may destruct its national interests.
Finally, if positive achievements within the Commonwealth, e.g. Interstate Economic Union, are to be developed and the principles of qual partnership, that would escape both Russia's misunderstanding with the West and imperial ambitions of some Russian politicians are to win it would be only the constructive way of the CIS progress.