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Ukraine And European Security - International Mechanisms
As Non-Military Options For National Security Of Ukraine.

Bohdan Lupiy
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GoChapter 1. National Security Of Ukraine

Section 3. Conclusions: Consideration of the risks to the national security of Ukraine.

According to the approach of M. Kenan "deciding what constitutes national security requires very complicated calculations; it requires trying to harmonize the imperatives of physical security with the imperatives of economic and institutional security. In addition, it requires the determination of actual threats to these valuables, the relative severity of the different threats, and how to respond to them without unnecessarily compromising other values".(99)

In spite of above-mentioned sectoral analysis, an identification of the actual threats to Ukraine's national security seems also to be notably complex question.

To begin, one can assume foremost, that each sector of the security framework reflects upon current shape of Ukraine's security either directly or and indirectly and this influence distributes uneven according to the sectors of the national security complex: if some of them are challenged covertly or indirectly, others are influenced overtly or directly. Following, it is possible to point out the definite hierarchy of the sectors according to the degree of their challenge to Ukraine's security.

Thus, as preceding analysis shows, the economic sector occupies the central place in current Ukraine's security domain and one can assume that economic imperatives appeared to be more influential and powerful than ethnic or ideological ones. It has heavily influenced all other sectors and lead to increasing domestic tensions as well as Kiev's careful approach towards Russia. For instance, the unsteadiness within the East-Ukrainian region and particularly, Crimea reflected the situation, when hard economic conditions became, the greater danger of political clash.

Thus, it is possible to conclude, that the state of economy is the most urgent priority for the Ukrainian security protection, which requires considerable economic reformation of the country

through restructuring of the monetary, fiscal and financial systems, price liberalization, reducing the budget deficit, radical land reform, and acceleration of privatization. Ukraine's future as a state will largely be determined by the success of its credible economic changes.

Considering the fact, that the main risks to country's political sector "range from pressing the government on a particular policy, through overthrowing the government, to fomenting secessionism"(100), it is likely that being a weak state(101) Ukraine is highly inclined to political threats. Subjugated to the threat of secessionism on some regions and influence of external pro-Russian political propaganda, Ukraine can be put on the brink of ruin.

Given the absence of strong Ukrainian nationhood the next, societal sector occupies significant place in the core of Ukrainian nation-building process. Although this sector traditionally relates rather to state internal affairs, in Ukrainian case it is also concerned with external objects, for instance in relations with Russia.

Outlining a range of problems, facing by Ukrainian leadership in this domain, it is useful to cite Alexandr Motyl of the Harriman Institute at Columbia University, who difines them as following: "1.Ukraine's Russian speaking population; 2.the forming of the core of the "people of Ukraine"; 3.and, the problems concerning other states, or to be more precise in this case - the possibility of receiving support by extremists from outside forces, especially from Russia".(102)

Preceeding analysis also clearly shows, that lack of integrations components is objective and indicative for all Ukrainian population, as Ukraine's history promoted the formation of separated symbolic and national values.

Besides proper policy towards national minorities, in which Ukraine was comparatively successful, there are another powerful incentives, which can unite Ukraine - economic reformation and development of potential national mass-media. Under such circumstances objective and symbolic diversities will compensate by economic and political factors - it seems to be obvious, that when civic national counciousness transcends ethnic identities it provides a foundation for a successful state-building.

With regard to the topic of this study, it should be said, that usually the military sector of state's security is affected in major degree because it concerns, primarily, with external objects operating predominantly in the framework of international field. In general, interdependence of all five sectors, inevitably, affects upon the military sector which "occupies the traditional heart of national security concerns".(103)

Currently, the military threat to Ukraine is unlikely. And as the Chairman of a Sub-Committee of the Ukrainian parliament, Colonel Valery Izmalkov puts it, "Ukraine faces no real threat from any external enemy". Nevertheless, together with a few clauses of Russian Military doctrine (see: Military Sector), unresolved issues over the Black Sea Fleet division, growing radical national forces in Russia, current situation exhibits similar tendencies to that of 1991-1992, when Ukrainian policy-planners counted significantly Russian military danger.(104) Therefore, the existence of external military threat in current circumstances should not be underrated.

Lastly, the environmental sector reflects upon all levels of Ukraine's security framework, and currently presents one of the biggest challenges to Ukraine. This problem, as it was mentioned before, is among those, which require constructive Western assistance. Algthough a part of finacial and technical support has already been provided, the dilemma seems to be far from resolution.

What is more, the environment and its protection is at the focus of world-wide attention because of the high level of degradation of soil, water, and marine resources, health threatening pollution, stratospheric ozone depletion, global climate change, and loss of biodiversity. Regardless, environmental policy is still neglected in Ukraine especially in the times of recession, when economic factors play the major role.

Conclusively, while this paper focuses on the foreign and security policies of Ukraine, it is necessary to distinguish the external threats to Ukraine's security in the domain of international fora.

According to the preceding analysis, Ukraine can be considered to be accessible especially to the outside political, military and economic threats, which mostly related to the Russian policy towards Ukraine. Consequently, Russia was, is and, probably, will be the major strategic concern of Ukraine. As one journalist has truthfully poined out, "If Mr. Kuchma pushes on with reform, and stay in control with parliament, the biggest danger, facing by his country will not come from inside Ukraine; it will come from Russia".(105)

There is also some asymmetrical distribution within external security concerns. Among above-mentioned sectors the economic and political ones inevitably occupy the vital ranks, while military, societal and environmental can be considered as more subjective in spite of current situation.(106)

On the other hand, given present Ukraine's unsteadiness and hard process of state-building each sector of national security presents to Ukraine serious challenge - be it considered in a current circumstances, or in a longer-run duration.

Ukraine faces problems similar to those of all the new independent states in trying to overcome the disastrous economic, political and environmental legacy of the Soviet Union. In animosity of these dilemmas, credible economic policy seems to be the brightest security tactic for Ukrainian leaders - ethnic and societal tensions, as well as domestic instability in general tend to decline, if country's economy grows up.

It is also evident, that rebuilding of Ukraine's economy, as well as creation of country's stable political system will take some time and still Ukraine can relay only on its diplomatic mechanisms, when gaining the allies and obtaining support of the world community.

The next part is aimed to investigate the development of Ukrainian foreign policy in spite of the regional and global events, which have taken place since the appearance of Ukraine as an independent state.

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