Individual
Democratic
Institutions
Research
Fellowships
1994-1996
The research reports reproduced here are the responsibility of the individual authors. Their reproduction does not imply any form of official or unofficial endorsement by NATO. The reports are offered in unedited form, as presented by their authors, with a view to make their findings available to a wide audience.

Baltic States: Cooperation on Security and
Integration into the European Security System
Talavs Jundzis
[Back to Index]

Appendixes

Apendix 1. Risk Factors in Post-Socialism States (case of Latvia).

Internal risk factors.

  1. Political and legal factors.
    1. The large number of foreigners and their unresolved citizenship problems.
    2. Illegal activities by groups and organizations against the Republic of Latvia.
    3. The presence of a large number of people who have no loyality to Latvia.
    4. The participation of former Soviet military and KGB personnel in businesses connected with access to weapons.
    5. Lack of recent democratic traditions and parliamentary history; inadequate political and administrative experience among the new generation of politicians.
    6. Restrictions on political activities and employment opportunities for people who are considered to have cooperated with the KGB; efforts to publicy unmask them, without sufficient proof.
    7. An active campaign against developing a national security and defense system; lack of education in patriotic duties and military traditions.
    8. The imcompleteness and contradiotions in the judicial system; partial collapse of law enforcement institutions and delay in reorganizing them.

  2. Military risk factors.
    1. The presence in Latvia of a Russian military installation and the possible provocations and conflicts associated with it.
    2. Weak civilian control over military forces; lack of internal order, inadequate equipment, low training level in military units.

  3. Economic risk factors.
    1. The drop in gross national product (GNP) to a critical level and the lack of protection for local producers.
    2. Disproportionately large debts to foreign countries and ineffective use of credits.
    3. Concentration of capital in large privately owned banks and their bankruptcies.
    4. The national energy needs being too dependent on one country or one group of countries.
    5. The handing over of vital communications installations and strategically important objects (pipelines, harbors, airports, etc.) to private firms and foreign countries.
    6. Incomplete and contradictory laws governing business and property relationships; inadequate control over tax collection.

  4. Social risk factors.
    1. Lack of social security for large groups of people and their slide into poverty.
    2. High level of real unemployment.
    3. Widespread alcoholism and growing narcotics addiction.
    4. Death rate exceeding birth rate; drop in intellect levels.
    5. The spread of pseudo-culture; propaganda of violence and inhumanity.

  5. Crime risk factors.
    1. Growing crime rate.
    2. The spread and entrenching of organized crime.
    3. Widespread corruption of officials.
    4. Uncontrolled spread of weapons.

  6. Potential industrial, natural and ecological risk factors.
    1. Large scale industrial accidents.
    2. Natural disasters.
    3. Ecological emergencies.

External risk factors.

  1. Political risk factors.
    1. Propaganda attacks and dissemination of distorted information to discredit Latvia in the international arena.
    2. Political demands of foreign powers creating barriers to international security guaranties for Latvia.
    3. A foreign power's expansionist policies and attempts to secure exclusive political influence.
    4. Political pressure and efforts to interfere in Latvia's internal affairs by a foreign power.
    5. Efforts by a foreign power to turn ethnic minorities against Latvia's independence and to disintegrate the country.
    6. Territorial disputes and unresolved border issues with Russia.

  2. Military risk factors.
    1. The tendency for certain states to solve disagreements by use of force.
    2. The functioning, of Russian startegic military installation in Latvia (Skrunda radar).
    3. Conditions favorable for armed incidents on state borders.

  3. Economic risk factors.
    1. Foreign economic pressure, including economic blockades and other hostile economic actions to achieve political aims.
    2. Foreign attempts to gain control of Latvia's economy by coordinating investments and using disloyal persons.

  4. Crime risk factors.
    1. Entry of international organized crime into Latvia.
    2. Narcotics, weapons, radioactive materials, art, counterfeit money and other contraband flowing through Latvia.
    3. International white-collar crime, including fraud by fictional firms.

  5. Ecological risk factors.
    1. The pollution of the Baltic sea and the river Daugava by other countries.
    2. Radioactive contamination in Latvia due to nuclear accidents in other countries.

  6. Biological risk factors.
    1. The spread of AIDS and other dangerous diseases in epidemic form.

  7. Other risk factors.
    1. Uncontroled immigration and influx of refugees.
    2. The clandestine activities of foreign governments and disclosures of state secrets.

Appendix 2. Civilian Control of National Armed Forces in Republic of Latvia

Appendix 3. Republic of Latvia's National Armed Forces Structure

Appendix 4. Republic of Estonia's national defence system in peacetime

Appendix 5. Republic of Lithuania's national defence system in peacetime

Appendix 6. Armed forces of the Baltic States, 1995

[ Go to Index ] [ Go to Homepage ]