First published in the New York Times on 25 Nov. 2000

The Work Ahead in Bosnia Article by NATO Secretary General Lord Robertson BRUSSELS -- Nearly five years ago to the day, fueled by public outcry over the massacre at Srebrenica, American leadership, with the determined support of its allies, brought an end to the bloodiest war in Europe since World War II. It was a remarkable achievement, and since then it has been made even more remarkable by the progress in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the wider Balkan region. As it becomes increasingly common in the United States to assume that America's military commitment in the Balkans should be restructured and reduced, it is worth recalling the defining role that the United States and the NATO allies have played. Now is the time not to pull out, but to stay invested to reap even larger returns. When the negotiators and political leaders initialed the Dayton peace agreement, nearly 200,000 people in Bosnia and Herzegovina had died in 42 months of fighting and about 2 million had been displaced from their homes. Industrial production had fallen to 5 percent of prewar levels, and 80 percent of the population was entirely dependent on outside aid. Into this wreck of a society came the NATO-led coalition, with 60,000 troops (one-third American) and an American general in charge. The warring factions were heavily armed, bitter from brutality and battlefield losses and accustomed to breaking any agreement they signed. The success of the NATO-led force rested on NATO's power and determination. Only tough combat forces could carry out this kind of peacekeeping. In line with the tight deadlines set in the Dayton agreement, the force first separated the warring factions, then moved them and disarmed them. Today, the environment could not be more different. Elections are held regularly, with no expectation of violence. The 60,000 troops that once made up the peacekeeping force have been reduced to about 20,000, including roughly 4,000 Americans. With recent changes in Belgrade and Zagreb, there is more hope than ever that the politics of division will give way to the politics of reconciliation. The defeat of Slobodan Milosevic removes the biggest barrier to the Balkan region's becoming part of the new Europe. The peacekeepers' basic role has not changed. Preventing the factions from fighting takes real soldiers, with the credibility necessary to avoid having to fire shots. Peacekeeping is largely about deterrence. But the force is also supporting civil administrators trying to rebuild, helping to foster cooperation between military forces of formerly warring factions and arresting those indicted for war crimes — nine since I became secretary general a year ago. What would happen if the NATO force left now? Unfortunately, violence would still be likely. Five years has not been long enough to heal the wounds from Bosnia's past. But this does not mean peacekeeping has failed; having laid the foundations, the NATO-led force, with the international community, should now see the recovery of Bosnia through to conclusion. For anyone who needs to know how much has been achieved in the five years since the Dayton agreement was signed, a visit to Sarajevo would answer many questions. In 1995, the city had become a symbol of siege and suffering, with images beamed worldwide of a populace under constant threat and historic architecture destroyed or battered by gunfire. Today Sarajevo bustles. Its old market is again filled with shops and cafes, and the once empty road that was sniper alley hums with traffic. We must not forget how far we have come. Hundreds of thousands of refugees have returned to Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the flow is increasing. Yet thousands more still cannot go home. The town of Brcko, once a symbol of violence and hatred, now has a multiethnic administration. Elsewhere, especially in urban areas like Sarajevo, multiethnic parties are beginning to show real strength. But in other regions extreme nationalist parties hang on. Local leaders must also realize they cannot rely forever on international economic aid. They must work to tackle the corruption and bureaucracy that are deterring the investment needed for economic growth and a truly independent nation. But a job half done should not be given up. When historians look back, they will point to Dayton, and particularly the decisive role played by the United States and NATO, as the beginning of the events that have led to renewed hope for the entire region. Lord Robertson of Port Ellen is secretary general of NATO.